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Beech Forest West Coast

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A NIWA-led study has found New Zealand’s native forests are absorbing more carbon dioxide (CO2) than previously thought.  
 
Study leader, NIWA atmospheric scientist Dr Beata Bukosa, says the findings could have implications for New Zealand’s greenhouse gas reporting, carbon credit costs, and climate and land-use policies.  
 
She says forests – both native and exotic – play a vital role in absorbing CO₂ through photosynthesis, but previous studies may have underestimated the amount of carbon taken up by New Zealand’s mature indigenous forests, which were thought to be roughly carbon neutral.  
 
Using advanced modelling and NIWA’s supercomputer, the researchers examined a decade of atmospheric data, from 2011 to 2020, to better estimate the amount of CO₂ absorbed by New Zealand’s land ecosystems. The NIWA team worked with collaborators at GNS Science and Manaaki Whenua as well as other New Zealand and overseas universities and institutes.
 
The team used an inverse modelling technique – this combines atmospheric greenhouse gases with a model showing how air is transported through the atmosphere to identify CO2 sources and sinks – and compared the results against New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory as well as ‘bottom-up’ models. While the Inventory applies a combination of field inventory, modelling, and remote sensing to quantify forest carbon stocks and stock changes, the ‘bottom-up’ models use calculations based on ecosystem processes, land use and climate across the country, says Dr Bukosa.

“It was thought that some areas and land use types were in a near-balance state with the absorption and release of CO₂. Earlier estimates of how much carbon was removed by New Zealand land ecosystems ranged from a net 24 to 118 million tonnes a year. Our research found that New Zealand’s natural environment absorbed approximately 171 million tonnes of CO₂ annually.” – Dr Bukosa

She says the largest differences between earlier estimates and the new findings came in the South Island. 
 

“This was especially in areas dominated by mature native forests and certain grazing lands. We also found seasonal variation, as during autumn and winter, less CO₂ is released into the atmosphere than earlier estimates suggested.”


The research follows a pilot study in 2017, which also suggested indigenous forest in Fiordland might be absorbing more CO₂ than expected. 

“That study was based on only three years of data, and we weren’t sure if it was just a transient effect related to the climatic conditions, or if the effect was confined to Fiordland. Our new study shows the carbon sink is more widespread than we thought, particularly across the South Island, with greater uptake of CO₂ extending up the West Coast.

“With improvements in our modelling techniques, and data coverage, we’ve now shown the extra carbon uptake has persisted for at least a decade. More research could help us understand exactly why our method has shown such a difference in the carbon source and sink balance compared with other methods.”


Inverse modelling provides an independent estimate of emissions that can complement inventory-based approaches for emissions reporting, she says.
 

“New Zealand was the first country to develop the capability to infer national CO₂ emissions from atmospheric data and has since supported other countries to develop similar capability.”


Dr Andrea Brandon, a Ministry for the Environment principal scientist who co-authored the study, said the findings help build a clearer picture of the role New Zealand’s natural systems play in absorbing emissions from the atmosphere. However, further work will be needed before they can be included in official emissions reporting.
 

“We continually improve the Inventory – New Zealand’s annual record of emissions and removals – as new science and evidence comes to light. This ensures we have robust information so that we continue to meet our international reporting obligations.  

“The findings from this study indicate there may be additional carbon uptake somewhere in the system that we are currently not tracking. We need to identify what we are missing so that we can further refine our Inventory methods to capture it,” – Dr Andrea Brandon


Dr Bukosa says the results, due to be published shortly in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics and available here in preprint, have important implications for New Zealand’s tracking of carbon emissions and climate policies:
 

“We need to better understand why our native forests are absorbing more CO₂ than expected, and what this could mean for our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve our domestic and international targets.”


The research was part of a NIWA-led, MBIE-funded Endeavour programme called CarbonWatch NZ, which ended last year. NIWA principal scientist Dr Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher led CarbonWatch NZ and says the team is now looking to extend this work to definitively solve the puzzle of the difference in carbon between inventory methods and atmospheric measurements.  
   

“This research suggests that we could make the most of opportunities to slow climate change through changes to land management. Projections suggest New Zealand will need 84 million tonnes of emissions reductions on top of what can be done at home to meet its 2030 international commitments under the Paris Agreement. In addition to reducing the need for overseas offsets, better management of our native forests and other lands could enable New Zealand to be long-term stewards of our carbon sinks and offer magnificent biodiversity co-benefits.” – Dr Mikaloff-Fletcher

Wildfire Image: Marcus Kauffman Unspash

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Author: Harry Shepherd, Postdoctoral Research Associate, King’s College London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Non-native species appear to be better able to resist extreme weather, threatening native plants and animals and potentially creating more favourable conditions for invasive species under climate change. That’s the conclusion of a new study in the scientific journal Nature Ecology and Evolution.

Wildfires, droughts, heavy rainfall and storms are all increasing, and predicted to become more frequent throughout the next century due to human-driven climate change.

At the same time, humans are transporting more species into new areas, despite concerted global efforts to increase biosecurity across borders and to target the eradication of specific species. Some of these non-native species can go on to become invasive, damaging native ecosystems.

Capitalising on opportunities

Invasive species introduced by humans often possess traits that help them survive or even thrive when ecosystems are disturbed (perhaps by wildfire, a storm or human buildings).

Invasive plants are generally fast-growing, for instance, allowing them to quickly fill gaps before native species can recover from disturbances. They are also often very good at dispersing their seeds, allowing them to quickly colonise disturbed areas.

This is why scientists have long suspected that extreme weather and the success of non-native species could be linked.

If extreme weather removes native plants and animals, that increases the availability of resources such as water and space. Non-native species can then capitalise on these new resources to establish themselves.

Even more concerning is the potential for extreme weather and non-native species to interact, exacerbating their effect on native biodiversity. For instance, in a recent field experiment in the US, scientists deliberately started a fire which killed about 10% of the longleaf pine trees in the area studied.

But in areas where an invasive grass – cogongrass, an Asian native – was allowed to establish itself alongside the pines, the fires had more fuel and were larger, hotter and burned for longer.

Where the scientists had added rain shelters to simulate drought conditions, the grass dried out further and the fires became much more lethal. A combination of drought and the invasive species meant longleaf pine mortality soared to 44%.

Similarly, on the small Macquarie Island in the south west Pacific, a combination of extreme rainfall and the presence of invasive European rabbits reduced the breeding success of nesting black-browed albatrosses. Heavy grazing by the invasive rabbits reduced plant cover, exposing the albatross chicks to the harsh weather conditions.

This relationship between extreme weather and invasive species – two human-driven drivers of global change – threatens native plants and animals and could cost countries billions of dollars in coming decades. Ecologists must identify priority areas and species that can be targeted in efforts to minimise costs and prevent the loss of native biodiversity.

Bad weather, good for non-natives

To better understand how native and non-native species respond to extreme weather events, the scientists behind the new study reanalysed information from 443 peer-reviewed studies on how species responded to wildfires, droughts and storms. In all, they gathered data on 187 non-native species and 1,852 native species from all major animal groups.

Their results suggest that native and non-native species may indeed respond differently to extreme weather. Across all studies, a total of 24.8% of non-native species benefited from extreme weather events compared to only 12.7% of native species.

For example, while native species in both freshwater and land-based ecosystems were harmed by droughts, their non-native counterparts showed no significant response. Notably, marine ecosystems were comparatively more resistant to extreme weather events, with fewer differences between native and non-native species.

The authors did find marine heatwaves harmed native coral species, however, a relationship that has been documented in other scientific studies.

Identifying global hotspots

The authors took this information and combined it with known global hotspots of extreme weather, to identify areas where native species may be particularly vulnerable to the combination of extreme weather and invasive species.

They found high latitude areas such as northern US and Europe, for instance, are both vulnerable to extreme cold spells and possess non-native species that benefit from cold spells. Alternatively, areas of the western Amazon in Brazil and east Asia were identified as vulnerable to flooding and possessing flood-resistant non-native species.

In these regions, non-native species could benefit from increasing cold spells or flooding respectively, posing a greater threat to native plants and animals.

Studies like this are very useful. Regions that are identified as vulnerable can be targeted with early preventative measures to stop the spread of invasive species, or with measures to help native biodiversity cope with climate change.

This research could also allow targeted restoration to remove non-native species and produce invasion-resistant native communities that could better withstand future conditions. This is what happened on Macquarie Island, where invasive rabbits and rats were eventually eliminated and the whole ecosystem soon bounced back.

Such action could be critical as we adapt to a changing climate and a greater mixing of the world’s plants and animals.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Thunderstorm

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First published 19 September 2023, in Environmental Research Letters 18; reproduced here under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence

Authors:

  1. Giorgia Di Capua:Magdeburg-Stendal University of Applied Sciences, 39114 Magdeburg, Germany

  2. Stefan Rahmstorf: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 6012 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany | E-mail: dicapua@pik-potsdam.de

Abstract

Extreme weather events are rising at a pace which exceeds expectations based on thermodynamic arguments only, changing the way we perceive our climate system and climate change issues. Every year, heatwaves, floods and wildfires, bring death and devastation worldwide, increasing the evidence about the role of anthropogenic climate change in the increase of extremes. In this viewpoint article, we summarize some of the most recent extremes and put them in the context of the most recent research on atmospheric and climate sciences, especially focusing on changes in thermodynamics and dynamics of the atmosphere. While some changes in extremes are to be expected and are clearly attributable to rising greenhouse gas emissions, other seem counterintuitive, highlighting the need for further research in the field. In this context, research on changes in atmospheric dynamics plays a crucial role in explaining some of these extremes and more needs to be done to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms involved.

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A rise in weather extremes is probably the most severe early impact of rising global temperatures. Extreme weather events have a high impact on both human activities and natural ecosystems. In recent decades the world has seen an increase in heatwaves, droughts, flooding events and fire weather conditions, as expected in a warming climate. 2022 has been no exception, with record-breaking high temperatures registered across large portions of Western Europe, China and Pakistan (Hausfather 2023). In Pakistan, extreme monsoon rains and Himalayan glaciers melting away in a heat wave have flooded approximately 85 000 km2 (USAID 2022), killing more than 1700 people and causing $15 billion of damage (World Bank), while the Horn of Africa has seen an unprecedented drought that has pushed more than three million people into emergency food insecurity (NASA Earth Observatory 2022). Many of these events have been made more likely by anthropogenic warming and represent a serious threat to human society, with effects ranging from health and mortal- ity to economy and national security issues.

Even for lay persons it will be obvious that heat extremes will increase in a warming world. But it may be unexpected by how much: monthly heat extremes

that were three standard deviations above average during the baseline period 1951–1980 have already increased over 90-fold in frequency over the global land area, while the formerly near-unprecedented 4-sigma events have increased 1000-fold to affect 3% of the land area in any given month, data show (Robinson et al 2021). July 2023 was the hot- test month on record on Earth by a large margin (Copernicus 2023a), and likely the hottest for at least 10 000 years. Marine heatwaves have also doubled in the last few decades, and they are expected to see a 23-fold increase under a 2 ◦C warming scenario (Frölicher et al 2018)—the off-the charts sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in summer 2023 are a stern foretaste of this (Copernicus 2023b), while in Florida the marine heatwave caused wide spread bleaching turning into one of the worst events in the region on record (Dennis et al 2023).

Part of this is as expected simply by shifting a Gaussian normal distribution towards warmer values; the more extreme an event, the larger is the factor by which its likelihood increases. However, explaining the full extent of the global increase in extreme heat requires additional, dynamical effects (which we will discuss below).

And heat—especially lasting heat—is a silent killer. The death toll of the 2003 European heat wave has been estimated as ∼70 000 (Robine et al 2008), with a mortality peak in France higher than dur- ing any Covid19 wave (Ferrer and Breteau 2020). A first estimate for summer 2022 came in at ∼62 000 (Ballester et al 2023), when even in Britain temperatures soared above 40◦C for the first time in history. Temperature-related excess mortality is expected to increase with unmitigated global warming, even when accounting for a decrease in cold-related deaths (Gasparrini et al 2017).

Since early 2012, the fingerprint of climate change can be detected in any single day in the observed record. There are no more days on Earth where global weather is not significantly different from what it would be without human influence—on nearly all days even when just considering the weather pat- terns without the increase in global-mean temperature (Sippel et al 2020). Observations show that nearly the entire Earth surface has warmed since the late 19th century (except for the prominent ‘warming hole’ south of Greenland and Iceland, Rahmstorf et al 2015) and the annual global mean temperature has increased by 1.2◦C since the late 19th Century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2021). The intensity and speed of warming differ by region, with land areas warming twice as much as the ocean surface since 1970 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2021). Warming is more prominent in the Arctic, Eastern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia and western North America. Key heatwave characteristics, such as frequency, duration and cumulative heat (i.e. the heat produced by heatwaves days inside a season), show increasing trends since 1950 at global scale, with stronger trends in tropical and northern latitudes. Trends for these key variables have been accelerating in the past few decades (Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020). Summer 2023 was no exception, with record breaking temperature recorded in Southeastern US, China, Spain, Morocco, rendered more likely by current climate change (Zachariah et al 2023).

While the world-wide rise in heat extremes is easily understood given the rise in global mean temperature, mean global rainfall and extreme precipitation trends depict a more complex relationship. Global rainfall is expected to increase as evaporation from warmer oceans increases. Indeed, the IPCC AR6 WGI (2021) reports an increase in globally averaged land precipitation since 1950, though with medium confidence given the large variability and spatial heterogeneity of precipitation. However, extreme rainfall events have shown a steep increase in the last few decades (especially in tropical regions), with 1 in 4 record breaking rainfall events being attributable to climate change (Robinson et al 2021). In August 2023, the region surrounding Beijing was hit by a severe flood event which saw the highest rainfall record of

the last 140 years (744.8 mm in less the 4 d) (Hawkins 2023) Perhaps counterintuitively, some areas even show opposite trends in mean precipitation rates and extreme rainfall events. One such example is the Indian summer monsoon system, which shows a slight decrease in its mean seasonal precipitation rates together with a three-fold increase in extreme rainfall events during the 1950–2015 period (Roxy et al 2017). Therefore, when considering the effect of climate change on extremes, it is not enough to look at trends in mean values.

Another example of that is that despite the global-mean (and often also local) rainfall increase, the frequency and severity of droughts has also increased in some regions, for a number of reasons. One overall reason is that with approximately constant relative humidity, air will contain (and at some point rain out) 7% more moisture per degree of warming, while the resupply of water via evaporation increases only by 2%–3% per degree (Allan et al 2020). The additional evaporation and rain- fall tends to end up in heavy rain rather than alleviating drought: Half of it comes down in the wet- test 6 d each year (Pendergrass and Knutti 2018), and the heaviest rainfall events increase most strongly (Fischer and Knutti 2015). Also, increasing agricultural and ecological droughts (i.e. loss of soil moisture and drying vegetation) can be caused not just by declining precipitation but also by rising temperatures causing faster evapotranspiration. In different regions, either of these effects can be the more important one (Cook et al 2018). Major droughts can also result from natural climate variability and are rare events (compared to the length of available observational data). Thus, studying their trend and, more importantly, attributing them to anthropogenic global warming is not an easy task (Cook et al 2018). Several regions in the world have shown an increase in drought risk, such as Western North America, the Mediterranean, East Southern Africa, East Asia and South Australia, at least partly attributable to anthropogenic warming, with the Mediterranean and the North-Western North America showing the highest confidence (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2021).

In the past decade, wildfire activity has produced some new extreme fires that are unprecedented regarding propagation speed, intensity, location, timing and burnt area (Descals et al 2022, Senande- Rivera et al 2022). For example, the Australian ‘Black Summer’ wildfire disaster in 2019/2020 fol- lowed Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, burned more than half of the habitat for over 1600 native species and directly caused 33 human deaths and almost 450 more from smoke inhalation (Himbrechts 2021). An increase in extreme fire weather conditions can already be detected at global scale, although trend magnitude and spatial patterns vary at regional scale (Jain et al 2022). Globally, anthropogenic global warming is projected to cause unprecedented increases in extreme fire weather risk in the 21st century (Touma et al 2021). Model experiments estimate that anthropogenic induced changes in fire weather indices have already emerged from natural variability for 22% of the burnable land area globally by 2019, while by the mid twenty-first century the emergence will reach 30%–60% (Abatzoglou et al 2019). Meanwhile, in August 2023, Hawaii has experienced its worst wildfire on record, and one of the worst in US history, where dry conditions and hurricane-force winds fueled the flames bringing utter devastation to the town of Lahaina, killing at least 93 people and thus surpassing the death toll of the Camp fire in California in 2018 (Gabbat and Anguiano 2023).

While warm extremes are to be expected due to anthropogenic global warming, cold extreme are projected to decrease in this century. Nevertheless, despite the general increase in global surface temperatures, a few regions show a cooling trend in the historical record. One such example is central Siberia, which features a cooling trend during boreal winter (Inoue et al 2012). While both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing are debated as causes of this trend (Inoue et al 2012), the cooling trend is mainly associated with an increase in cold extremes over the region. Cold air outbreaks in central Siberia and North America have been shown to result from sudden stratospheric warming events and a disruption of the stratospheric Polar vortex (Kretschmer et al 2018).

Detecting climate change signals can be challenging depending on the region and the variable selected, and attributing trends in temperature or precipitation fields to changes in thermodynamic or dynamic features of the atmosphere represent an even greater challenge (Shepherd 2014). In general, the largest portion of the change is to be attributed to thermodynamic effects. However, dynamic changes can further exacerbate thermodynamic driven changes and atmosphere dynamics and changes in weather patterns play an important role at regional scale (Rousi et al 2022). Amplified Rossby waves with preferred phase position, in particular waves with wave numbers 5 and 7, can lead to concurrent heatwaves (and crop failures) in the mid-latitudes (Kornhuber et al 2020), raising concerns about future food security. Arctic amplification, despite being more prominent in winter than summer, may also affect westerly winds, storm tracks and wave-guides in the mid-latitudes (Coumou et al 2018). Analyzing the ability of models to reproduce amplified waves 5 and 7 shows that even a small bias in upper tropospheric circulation features can have a strong impact on surface temperature and rainfall patterns (Luo et al 2022), highlighting that it is difficult for global climate models to simulate all mechanisms that contribute to making weather more extreme.

Europe has emerged as a hot-spot of heat extremes: it has seen a stronger increase in summer heat than other regions in the northern mid-latitudes. This enhanced warming has been related to dynamical changes such as an increase of double jet patterns, which could explain all of the additional rise in heat waves beyond what is expected simply by thermodynamics (Rousi et al 2022). Both observation and model experiment support the hypothesis that shrinking Arctic sea ice and reduced snow cover over northern Eurasia in spring can also contribute to increased blocking over Europe and consequent frequency of heatwaves (Zhang et al 2020). Sea surface temperature anomalies (in particular the northern Atlantic ‘warming hole’ mentioned earlier) can also reinforce heatwaves in central Europe, such as in 2015 (Duchez et al 2015).

In summary, it is now clear that global warming is already greatly increasing the number and intensity of many types of weather extremes, as has been predicted by climate science for decades. Much of this is due to thermodynamics. With that we mean that the atmosphere is warmer, which means it holds more energy and water to power extreme weather. The ocean is also warmer and can provide more energy and moisture as fuel to tropical cyclones. However, increasingly the attention of researchers has turned to dynamic effects. With that we refer to changes in circulation and stability of atmosphere and ocean. It includes changes to the jet stream, polar vortex, atmospheric planetary waves or to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Obtaining robust conclusions about changes in weather extremes requires long time series, given that extreme events are by definition rare events and are not easy to model. Nevertheless, the signal of climate change has now clearly emerged from the noise for many types of extremes. Disentangling the dynamic mechanisms is harder again and represents a current frontline of research. Driving forces behind dynamic changes are often regionally diverse temperature changes, such as Arctic amplification, enhanced land warming and sea surface temperature anomalies. Many facets of the dynamic mechanisms are still being debated in the scientific literature. Even if not everything is fully understood, researchers and journalists should not be shy to use every opportunity to educate the public about the fact that human-caused global warming is making weather extremes worse, already causing serious harm to many millions of people.

Even once global warming is stopped, we will see unprecedented extremes for a long time to come. Just think of a former once-in-5000 year event which at 1.5◦C warming may have become a once-in-50 year event. Thus, it will take many decades until we have seen all the possible extreme events a 1.5◦C warmer world has in store for us.


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Allan R P et al 2020 Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change Ann. New York Acad. Sci. 1472 49–75

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Zachariah M, Philip S, Pinto I, Vahlberg M, Singh R, Arrighi J R, Barne C and Otto F E L 2023 Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change (https://doi.org/10.25561/105549)

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Carbon trading image: Sonny Whitelaw

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From The Guardian: read the full article by Nina Lakhani
 
“The Guardian and researchers from Corporate Accountability, a non-profit, transnational corporate watchdog, analysed the top 50 emission offset projects, those that have sold the most carbon credits in the global market.”According to our criteria and classification system:

  • A total of 39 of the top 50 emission offset projects, or 78% of them, were categorised as likely junk or worthless due to one or more fundamental failing that undermines its promised emission cuts.
  • Eight others (16%) look problematic, with evidence suggesting they may have at least one fundamental failing and are potentially junk, according to the classification system applied.
  • The efficacy of the remaining three projects (6%) could not be determined definitively as there was insufficient public, independent information to adequately assess the quality of the credits and/or accuracy of their claimed climate benefits.

“Overall, $1.16bn (£937m) of carbon credits have been traded so far from the projects classified by the investigation as likely junk or worthless; a further $400m of credits bought and sold were potentially junk.” – keep reading

Infographic: How are carbon offsets supposed to work?

Carbon Brief have also released a detailed analysis and mapping, including carbon credits claims made by New Zealand companies:
 
Carbon Brief carbon offsets mapped
Carbon Brief’s infographic: carbon offset claims

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We can’t just sit around and wait to see what will happen next. We need positive action.

I’ve read a lot of Climate Adaptation Plans and Strategies over the past the last few years, but He Toka Tū Moana Mō Maketū (Maketū Climate Change Adaptation Plan) is hand-down the best. It’s clearly laid out, outlines the community’s priorities, and can readily serve as a template to help every community around Aoteara develop their own Climate Adaptation Plans. Most important of all:

It’s iwi led, community driven, it’s a plan that’s been decided by those who live here. –  Elva Conroy, Kaitohotohu / Facilitator (Video; to listen Watch on Youtube)

Winner of the 2023 Supreme Planning Awards, the Maketū Climate Change Adaptation Plan was developed by Ngāti Pikiao Environmental Society, Te Rūnanga o Ngāti Whakaue ki Maketū , Whakaue Marae Trustees, and Conroy and Donald Consultants.

In the words of the Maketu Iwi Collective, ‘we will be resilient like the anchor stone Takaparore – strong and steadfast against the elements and tides of change and uncertainty. Regardless of what happens as a result of a changing environment, we will remain standing’. – New Zealand Planning Institute, April 2023.

Un Gap Report 2022

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It comes as no surprise. Following COP 26, in December last year it was evident that the carbon budget to stay under 1.5C already was bankrupt. Some simple arithmetic clearly demonstrated that.

Since COP26, the ‘Don’t-Look-Up’ mentality, or perhaps the ‘war-in-Ukraine’ and ‘post-Covid-economy’ have become diversionary topics. The latest UN GAP Report begins with a clear admission, and an admonition. Nations have shaved just 1% off their projected greenhouse gas emissions for 2030, at a time when reductions need to be 45% to have even a chance to keep temperatures under 1.5C. In short, there is no credible no credible pathway in which global temperatures under that 2.8C, and “...uncertainties in the climate system mean that warming of up to 4C cannot be fully ruled out.”

These uncertainties are the dangerous tipping points explained in more detail on this website.

If you’re not up to reading the full report, Carbon Brief has an in depth analysis. While the report also offers solutions, the window is closing on fingernails barely clinging to the sill.

Look up.
 
Please.
 

“Every year, the negative impacts of climate change become more intense. Every year, they bring more misery and pain to hundreds of millions of people across the globe. Every year, they become more a problem of the here and now, as well as a warning of tougher consequences to come. We are in a climate emergency.

“And still, as UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2022 shows, nations procrastinate. Since COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, new and updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) have barely impacted the temperatures we can expect to see at the end of this century.

“This year’s report tells us that unconditional NDCs point to a 2.6°C increase in temperatures by 2100, far beyond the goals of the Paris Agreement. Existing policies point to a 2.8°C increase, highlighting a gap between national commitments and the efforts to enact those commitments. In the best- case scenario, full implementation of conditional NDCs, plus additional net zero commitments, point to a 1.8°C rise. However, this scenario is currently not credible.

“To get on track to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, we would need to cut 45 per cent off current greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. For 2°C, we would need to cut 30 per cent. A stepwise approach is no longer an option. We need system-wide transformation. This report tells us how to go about such a transformation. It looks in-depth at the changes needed in electricity supply, industry, transport, buildings and food systems. It looks at how to reform financial systems so that these urgent transformations can be adequately financed.

“Is it a tall order to transform our systems in just eight years? Yes. Can we reduce greenhouse gas emissions by so much in that timeframe? Perhaps not. But we must try. Every fraction of a degree matters: to vulnerable communities, to species and ecosystems, and to every one of us. Most importantly, we will still be setting up a carbon-neutral future: one that will allow us to bring down temperature overshoots and deliver other benefits, like clean air.

“The world is facing other crises. We must deal with them. But let us remember that they also offer opportunities to reform our global economy. We have missed the opportunity to invest in a low-carbon recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, we are in danger of missing the opportunity to boost clean and efficient energy as a response to the energy crisis. Instead of missing such opportunities, we must capitalize on them with confidence.

“I urge every nation and every community to pore over the solutions offered in this report, build them into their NDCs and implement them. I urge everyone in the private sector to start reworking their practices. I urge every investor to put their capital towards a net-zero world. The transformation begins now. ”

– Inger Anderson, Executive Director, UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2022

Climate justice

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“In a landmark decision, a United Nations committee on Friday found Australia’s former Coalition government violated the human rights of Torres Strait Islanders by failing to adequately respond to the climate crisis.”

This decision sets a precedent that has direct implications for Aoteora. For the first time:

“Significantly, deep Indigenous cultural and ecological knowledge, rather than Western climate science, proved key to this UN decision. This marks a departure from broad international climate politics where Indigenous laws, cultures, knowledges and practices are often sidelined or underrepresented.”

“The Torres Strait Islanders ‘Group of Eight’ claimed Australia failed to take measures such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and upgrading seawalls on the islands. The UN upheld the complaint and said the claimants should be compensated.

“This decision is a breakthrough in Indigenous rights and climate justice, including by opening up new pathways for Indigenous communities – who are often on the frontline of the climate crisis – to defend their rights.

“The Albanese government, which has stated its commitment to work with the Torres Strait on climate change, must now meet this moment of possibility and challenge.

“…The evidence was backed by findings from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which called for urgent action to protect the vulnerable region.

– Professor, Environment and Development Sociology, The University of Queensland

Read the full story in The Conversation, here.