Response - Climate Change & Nature: New Zealand

Response: What is being done?

Video 1: UN Development Programme: to play with sound, scroll to the bottom of this page

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What is being done?

Summary

“We’re heading for a climate disaster, and yet every year, governments spend hundreds of billions of public funds on fossil fuel subsidies. Imagine if we had spent hundreds of billions per year subsidising giant meteors? That’s what you’re doing right now.” – Video 1 (above) Velociraptor (on behalf of the the United Nations).

July 2024: We are no longer on track for net zero under the Coaltion Government’s new climate ‘plan’.
Late 2023: International Energy Agency reported that the increasing global population and consumption is increasing fossil fuel emissions, outpacing the growth of renewable energy.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report is the best “road map” for how to most effectively reduce emissions. It is a complicated read, so we recommend Carbon Brief’s (free to access) Q&A explainer.
In July 2023 global average temperatures passed 1.5°C and are still there in mid 2024; Climate Analytics is working out much we can overshoot this and what it will cost to bring it back under this critical temperature.
Per head of population, Aotearoa is the worst country on Earth in cumulative emitted since 1850 (Fig. 1). We rank 44 out of 45 of the world’s Industrialised countries (Fig. 2). We’re using more than six times our fair share of the carbon emissions budget that would keep global temperature increases below 1.5°C.
Our agricultural sector produces 50% of our emissions (Fig. 3) but are exempt from the Emissions Trading Scheme , propped up by taxpayer dollars.
The Emissions Trading Scheme makes it more financially lucrative to plant radiata pine, than restoring native forests (Fig. 4). This ignores the carbon stored in native forest soils vastly exceeds carbon in the soils of monoculture pine forests. And biodiverse native forest store just as much if not more carbon above the ground, while also providing life-supporting ecosystem services.
We have run out of time to avoid some of the worsening climate impacts over the coming decades but we can avoid catastrophic impacts if ecosystems are restored and the New Zealand Government stops subsidising fossil fuels.

“The time is now, Ināia tonu nei, to lead the change we want to see and to remain steadfast to the values that underpin our nationhood—values like whanaungatanga, kaitiakitanga and manaakitanga.” – Climate Change Commission 2021

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Video: UNDP: to play sound, scroll to page bottom

Summary

July 2024: We no longer on track for net zero under the Coaltion Government’s new climate ‘plan’.
Late 2023: International Energy Agency reported that the increasing global population and consumption is increasing fossil fuel emissions, outpacing the growth of renewable energy.
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report is the best “road map” for how to most effectively reduce emissions. It is a complicated read, so we recommend Carbon Brief’s (free to access) Q&A explainer.
In July 2023 global average temperatures passed 1.5°C and are still there in mid 2024; Climate Analytics is working out much we can overshoot this and what it will cost to bring it back under this critical temperature.
Per head of population, Aotearoa is the worst country on Earth in cumulative emitted since 1850 (Fig. 1). We rank 44 out of 45 of the world’s Industrialised countries (Fig. 2). We’re using more than six times our fair share of the carbon emissions budget that would keep global temperature increases below 1.5°C.
Our agricultural sector produces 50% of our emissions (Fig. 3) but are exempt from the Emissions Trading Scheme , propped up by taxpayer dollars.
The Emissions Trading Scheme makes it more financially lucrative to plant radiata pine, than restoring native forests (Fig. 4). This ignores the carbon stored in native forest soils vastly exceeds carbon in the soils of monoculture pine forests. And biodiverse native forest store just as much if not more carbon above the ground, while also providing life-supporting ecosystem services.
We have run out of time to avoid some of the worsening climate impacts over the coming decades but we can avoid catastrophic impacts if ecosystems are restored and the New Zealand Government stops subsidising fossil fuels.

Fig. 1: The top 20 countries for cumulative emissions 1850-2021 weighted by population in 2021 (left), versus the top 20 countries for cumulative per-capita emissions 1850-2021 (right). The ranking excludes countries with a population in 2021 of less than 1 million people. (Image: Carbon Brief)

Video 2: The 2023 Emissions Gap Report summarises the effects of failing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to keep the planet with a safe operating temperature.

Fig. 2: New Zealand is one of the worst countries in the world in terms of meeting its commitments to keep temperatures under 1.5C. (Image: Climate Action Tracker)

Fig. 3: Agricultural emissions increased to 50% of our total emissions in 2020.

“The idea of planting trees in vast areas to remove carbon dioxide from the air and reduce the impact of climate change, for example, has attracted a lot of attention, with some claiming it’s the best “low-hanging fruit” approach to pursue, McElwee said. But large-scale tree planting could conflict directly with food security because both compete for available land. It could also diminish biodiversity, if fast-growing exotic trees replace native habitat.” – Rutgers University, 2020

Fig. 4: Under the existing Emissions Trading Scheme, (ETS) the financial incentives to plant exotic trees are far greater than regenerating native forests. Radiata pine sequesters carbon faster in the trees, but not soils. More carbon is lost by the carbon-emitting harvesting methods, transporting felled timber (generally offshore), converting timber into wood products most of which will ultimately be burned or rot, releasing their carbon. Meanwhile, the biodiversity values and essential ecosystem services including soil carbon provided by natives are being sacrificed.

Fig. 5: To see an interactive map, click the image to the IPCC website. This screengrab shows how you can enter information for regions (eg New Zealand/ land only) and check the projected temperature changes over time, based on different models and pathways.

Video 3: Reducing Future Extreme Weather Impacts in Aotearoa New Zealand (July 2024)

More information

Explainer: What are 'net emissions'?

Net emissions means gross (total) greenhouse gas emissions from all industrial activities, burning fossil fuels for energy, and agriculture, minus carbon saved and stored underground permanently via natural terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems.

While every country also includes plantation forestry (in New Zealand, mostly radiata pine) as part of their carbon savings to offset gross emission, in reality, this is a very short term saving as there are huge carbon costs and risks associated with plantation forestry that are not fully accounted for.

Most negative emissions technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere (Carbon Capture and Storage – see this website) also are included in the carbon ‘savings’ calculations for tax purposes. However the vast bulk of this engineering recycles carbon back into the atmosphere rather than permanently sequestering carbon underground.

‘Net emissions’ is thus an accounting term that countries use for reporting purposes, to calculate the balance of their emissions based on what they choose to include in those calculations. What’s left out of these equations still goes into the atmosphere.

Global emissions continue to increase each year in spite of Covid-19 and dangerous tipping points are being breached, which means natural carbon sinks are now becoming sources of methane and carbon dioxide, none of which are currently included in the global carbon budget. See ‘Bankrupting the carbon budget‘ this website.

Explainer: What is 'Critical Infrastructure'?
The term ‘critical infrastructure’ is used to describe built structures. Defined by the National Emergency Management Agency (links to PDF), it includes:

Power (electricity, fuel, gas)

Transport (roads, rail, bridges, airports)

Communications (cell towers etc.)

Three waters (supply of safe freshwater, wastewater treatment, and stormwater removal)

The term is mechanistic insofar as all parts are interlocking, interdependent, and can be rationally explained. However, this refers to critical built infrastructure, which supports modern society but not human existence. Ecosystem services are also mechanistic, providing critical natural infrastructure.

In the real world, critical natural infrastructure is a higher-order priority because it provides the life-supporting services we need to exist. This includes:

clean healthy water

oxygen to breath

nutrient recycling

food to eat

carbon capture and storage

stable climate

In short, the entire toolkit of essential infrastructure services without which humans cannot exist.

When natural critical infrastructure is damaged or destroyed, it disables or removes the capability of built infrastructure.

Hence, critical natural infrastructure is a first-order essential that supersedes and underpins critical built infrastructure.

Reference: 2022 Wagner: Formally designate blue-green infrastructure for climate adaptation, Nature article 26 July, 2022

References and further reading
2023: UN Emissions Gap Report
2023: Kwiatkowski et al; Contrasting carbon dioxide removal potential and nutrient feedbacks of simulated ocean alkalinity enhancement and macroalgae afforestation, Environmental Research Letters 18 (October)
2023: He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission Advice on the direction of policy for the Government’s second emissions reduction plan (December)
2023: MfE; ‘Our atmosphere and climate’ (October)
2023: Expert Working Group on Managed Retreat; Report of the Expert Working Group on Managed Retreat: A Proposed System for Te Hekenga Rauora/Planned Relocation (August 23 amended version)
2023:Ministry for the Environment Community-led retreat and adaptation funding: Issues and options (15 August)
2022: Ministry for the Environment National Adaptation Plan (03 August)
2022: (April) NZ’s greenhouse gas emissions have increased; Ministry for the Environment
2022: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
2022: Wagner, Formally designate blue-green infrastructure for climate adaptation, Nature article 26 July, 2022
2021: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: The Physical Science
2021: Kimberely et al; Carbon sequestration by native forest — setting the record straight, Tanes Tree Trust | PureAdvantage
Climate Action Tracker: New Zealand
It’s time, Canterbury – our climate change conversation
2021: Analysis: Which countries are historically responsible for climate change? Carbon Brief
2021: Ināia tonu nei:a low emissions future for Aotearoa – Advice to the New Zealand Government on its first three emissions budgets and direction for its emissions reduction plan 2022 – 2025, Climate Change Commission
2021: Grassi et al; Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress, Nature Climate Change 881
2020: A safe operating space for New Zealand/Aotearoa:Translating the planetary boundaries framework; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
2020: United Nations Emissions Gap Report
Ministry for the Environment: About New Zealand’s emissions reduction targets
2020: McElwee et al; The impact of interventions in the global land and agri‐food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, Global Change Biology 12 June, 2020
Rutgers University interview with the authors: How to tackle climate change, food security and land degradation

2020: Gibson; New Zealand’s Paris target too weak for 1.5C – official advice to Govt; Stuff.co.nz
2019: Tollefson; The hard truths of climate change—by the numbers Nature special report
2015: The Paris Accord
IPCC: Special Report – Global Warming of 1.5°C