Response: NDCs – Nationally Determined Contributions
Image: Macrovector@Freepik
Response
- Adaptation
- What is being done?
- Models: forecasting future climate
- Carbon dioxide removal
- Enhanced mineral weathering
- Retreating from coasts and rivers
- Managing climate anxiety
- Plant trees…but mostly pines!
- Emissions trading scheme: ETS
- IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- The Paris Agreement
- NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions
- NZ policies & strategies
- Climate Change Commission
- Brief history of climate change: who knew what, when
Other sections
Home > Climate wiki > Response > Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs
NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions
Summary
- Under the Paris Agreement (Article 4, paragraph 2) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, 196 countries promised to set targets for reducing their own greenhouse gas emissions. The system was called Nationally Determine Contributions or NDCs, to keep the world well below 2°C; preferably no more than 1.5°C warming.
Then, we all set about comprehensively failing to implement event those measures. We’re currently on track to reach 5°C by the end of century.” – Dave Borlice
- New Zealand is one of the worst-performing countries, ranking 44th out of 45 of the world’s Industrialised countries. We’re using more than six times our fair share of the emissions budget that would keep global temperature increases below 1.5°C (Fig. 1).
- New Zealand’s NDC target: by 2030 reduce emissions by 30% below 2005 levels. The target is to be managed using an emissions budget that New Zealand set itself, one of the least ambitious targets on Earth, and nowhere near enough to help keep temperatures under 1.5°C (Fig. 2).
- The targets are supposed to include all sectors and all greenhouse gases. In reality, many sectors have been given exemptions; our farming sector is exempt until 2025, when it will be given a 95% discount. Yet biogenic methane, i.e. methane from livestock, is one of our largest greenhouse gas emissions by sector (Fig. 1).
- Scroll down to see the full wording of New Zealand’s 2020 report to the UN (it’s short: Fig. 3).
- See the Climate Change Commission for more details.
“New Zealand’s Paris Agreement target is inconsistent with the Government’s goal of keeping the average temperature increase to within 1.5°C, officials have told ministers. The advice from the Ministry for the Environment was given to Climate Change Minister James Shaw in February and obtained by Stuff under the Official Information Act.
“Shaw was told the target allows some 85 million tonnes more emissions between 2021 and 2030 than would be compatible with a 1.5°C goal – putting the country over budget by about one year’s current emissions.” – Stuff July 2020
Response
- Adaptation
- What is being done?
- Models: forecasting future climate
- Carbon dioxide removal
- Enhanced mineral weathering
- Retreating from coasts and rivers
- Managing climate anxiety
- Plant trees…but mostly pines!
- Emissions trading scheme: ETS
- IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- The Paris Agreement
- NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions
- NZ policies & strategies
- Climate Change Commission
- Brief history of climate change: who knew what, when
Other sections
Home > Climate wiki > Response > Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs
Summary
- Under the Paris Agreement (Article 4, paragraph 2) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, 196 countries promised to set targets for reducing their own greenhouse gas emissions. The system was called Nationally Determine Contributions or NDCs, to keep the world well below 2°C; preferably no more than 1.5°C warming.
Then, we all set about comprehensively failing to implement event those measures. We’re currently on track to reach 5°C by the end of century.” – Dave Borlice
- New Zealand is one of the worst-performing countries, ranking 44th out of 45 of the world’s Industrialised countries. We’re using more than six times our fair share of the emissions budget that would keep global temperature increases below 1.5°C (Fig. 1).
- New Zealand’s NDC target: by 2030 reduce emissions by 30% below 2005 levels. The target is to be managed using an emissions budget that New Zealand set itself, one of the least ambitious targets on Earth, and nowhere near enough to help keep temperatures under 1.5°C (Fig. 2).
- The targets are supposed to include all sectors and all greenhouse gases. In reality, many sectors have been given exemptions; our farming sector is exempt until 2025, when it will be given a 95% discount. Yet biogenic methane, i.e. methane from livestock, is one of our largest greenhouse gas emissions by sector (Fig. 1).
- Scroll down to see the full wording of New Zealand’s 2020 report to the UN (it’s short: Fig. 3).
- See the Climate Change Commission for more details.
“New Zealand’s Paris Agreement target is inconsistent with the Government’s goal of keeping the average temperature increase to within 1.5°C, officials have told ministers. The advice from the Ministry for the Environment was given to Climate Change Minister James Shaw in February and obtained by Stuff under the Official Information Act.
“Shaw was told the target allows some 85 million tonnes more emissions between 2021 and 2030 than would be compatible with a 1.5°C goal – putting the country over budget by about one year’s current emissions.” – Stuff July 2020
More information
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Net emissions means gross (total) greenhouse gas emissions from all industrial activities, burning fossil fuels for energy, and agriculture, minus carbon saved and stored underground permanently via natural terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems.While every country also includes plantation forestry (in New Zealand, mostly radiata pine) as part of their carbon savings to offset gross emission, in reality, this is a very short term saving as there are huge carbon costs and risks associated with plantation forestry that are not fully accounted for.Most negative emissions technology to remove carbon from the atmosphere (Carbon Capture and Storage – see this website) also are included in the carbon ‘savings’ calculations for tax purposes. However the vast bulk of this engineering recycles carbon back into the atmosphere rather than permanently sequester carbon underground.‘Net emissions’ is thus an accounting term that countries use for reporting purposes, to calculate the balance of their emissions based on what they choose to include in those calculations. What’s left out of these equations still goes into the atmosphere.Global emissions continue to increase each year in spite of Covid-19 and dangerous tipping points are being breached, which means natural carbon sinks are now becoming sources of methane and carbon dioxide.
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- 2021: Tolefson; COP26 climate summit: A scientists’ guide to a momentous meeting, Nature journal (open access report)
- 2021: UNEP; Emission Gap Report 2021
- 2020: Submission under the Paris Agreement Communication and update of New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution 22 April 2020
- Ministry for the Environment: New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution
- 2020: A safe operating space for New Zealand/Aotearoa:Translating the planetary boundaries framework; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- 2020: United Nations Emissions Gap Report
- Climate Action Tracker: New Zealand
- Ministry for the Environment: About New Zealand’s emissions reduction targets
- 2020: McElwee et al; The
impact of interventions in the global land and agri‐food sectors on
Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development
Goals, Global Change Biology 12 June, 2020- Rutgers University interview with the authors: How to tackle climate change, food security and land degradation
- 2020: Gibson; New Zealand’s Paris target too weak for 1.5C – official advice to Govt; Stuff.co.nz
- 2019: Tollefson; The hard truths of climate change—by the numbers Nature special report
- 2015: The Paris Accord
- IPCC: Special Report – Global Warming of 1.5°C
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- 2021: Tolefson; COP26 climate summit: A scientists’ guide to a momentous meeting, Nature journal (open access report)
- 2021: UNEP; Emission Gap Report 2021
- 2020: Submission under the Paris Agreement Communication and update of New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution 22 April 2020
- Ministry for the Environment: New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution
- 2020: A safe operating space for New Zealand/Aotearoa:Translating the planetary boundaries framework; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
- 2020: United Nations Emissions Gap Report
- Climate Action Tracker: New Zealand
- Ministry for the Environment: About New Zealand’s emissions reduction targets
- 2020: McElwee et al; The
impact of interventions in the global land and agri‐food sectors on
Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development
Goals, Global Change Biology 12 June, 2020
- Rutgers University interview with the authors: How to tackle climate change, food security and land degradation
- 2020: Gibson; New Zealand’s Paris target too weak for 1.5C – official advice to Govt; Stuff.co.nz
- 2019: Tollefson; The hard truths of climate change—by the numbers Nature special report
- 2015: The Paris Accord
- IPCC: Special Report – Global Warming of 1.5°C