June 2019 the ice sheet near Qaanaaq Greenland that they would normally sled across was covered in vast meltwater lakes due to extreme surface warming (17°C). Meltwater eventually drains into the ocean, contributing to rising sea levels and disrupting oceanic currents. – Video: Steffen M. Olsen, Danish Meteorological Institute.
Effects
- Planetary Boundaries & Tipping Points
- Extreme weather & event attribution
- ENSO: El Niño & La Niña
- Feedback effects of warming
- Wildfires increasing
- Antarctica melting
- Antarctic sea ice disappearing
- Arctic sea ice disappearing
- Greenland melting
- Ocean currents changing
- Oceans warming
- Ocean acidification
- Melting permafrost & burning ice
- New Zealand’s disappearing glaciers
- Black carbon & ash on snow
- Seasons changing
- How we know about past climates: proxy data
Home > Climate wiki > Effects > Tipping points
Summary
It’s like someone leaning back in a chair. If they don’t tilt too far, they can easily return to having all four legs on the floor. But once they pass the tipping point, the whole system comes crashing down. And it is much harder to get up again than it was to fall. – Mathematician Niklas Boers, Carbon Brief
Everything in the Earth system is connected. When one part of the climate system crosses its tipping point, then that might make it more likely for other parts of the system to also cross their critical thresholds. So you can think of this in terms of dominoes. If you tip one of them over, then this might lead to cascading effect. – Prof. Jason Box in Breaking Boundaries: The Science of our Planet.
Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies. – Global Tipping Points Report, 2023
Effects
- Planetary Boundaries & Tipping Points
- Extreme weather & event attribution
- ENSO: El Niño & La Niña
- Feedback effects of warming
- Wildfires increasing
- Antarctica melting
- Antarctic sea ice disappearing
- Arctic sea ice disappearing
- Greenland melting
- Ocean currents changing
- Oceans warming
- Ocean acidification
- Melting permafrost & burning ice
- New Zealand’s disappearing glaciers
- Black carbon & ash on snow
- Seasons changing
- How we know about past climates: proxy data
Home > Climate wiki > Effects > Tipping points
Summary
It’s like someone leaning back in a chair. If they don’t tilt too far, they can easily return to having all four legs on the floor. But once they pass the tipping point, the whole system comes crashing down. And it is much harder to get up again than it was to fall. – Mathematician Niklas Boers, Carbon Brief
Everything in the Earth system is connected. When one part of the climate system crosses its tipping point, then that might make it more likely for other parts of the system to also cross their critical thresholds. So you can think of this in terms of dominoes. If you tip one of them over, then this might lead to cascading effect. – Prof. Jason Box in Breaking Boundaries: The Science of our Planet.
Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies. – Global Tipping Points Report, 2023
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Human generated greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss are passing critical thresholds, tipping the climate into a state that we humans have never before experienced. Governments agreed that to ‘avoid a critical threshold above which the planet could experience irreversible catastrophic impacts‘, global temperatures must not exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while acknowledging that major tipping points could be reached between 1°C – 2°C. In 2024, average global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C.
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Video 1: The science behind planetary boundaries and highlights the urgent need for transformative change (August 2024).
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Video 2: Prof. Johan Rockström summarises the Official Planetary Health Check 2025.
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These are often non-linear and self-perpetuating. That is:
(1) They generally happen abruptly rather than gradually, and with little to no warning
(2) They are irreversible in human time-frames
(3) There is no way to control them
(4) Some will trigger massive carbon emissions from what once were natural carbon sinks, such as the Amazon rainforest, which in 2021 stopped being a carbon sink; permafrost; the loss of 28% of the Earth’s entire tropical peat stocks; and carbon in other soils (which are not accounted for in climate models) now on the move
(5) They threaten the natural world and us
Tipping points are when we push so called tipping elements across their biophysical thresholds which leads to an irreversible change. A tipping element is a biophysical system that fulfills 2 criteria:
- Scientific evidence that it contributes to regulate the state of the climate system.
- Scientific evidence of multiple stable states, for example, either frozen ice sheet or liquefied ice. Another example is either a rainforest or savannah.
What separates these states are the interactions and feedbacks between non-negotiable biological chemical physical properties such as the melting point of ice. For example, a healthy ice sheet with very high altitude that’s very cold. If that starts melting, it gets lower and lower altitude, so you get a self-amplifying feedback, because the lower the altitude, the warmer it gets, and the darker the surface—because it is liquefied—the albedo shifts from reflecting to absorbing yet more heat. – Prof. Johan Rockstron (Video 2)
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Video 2: Prof. Johan Rockström summarises the Official Planetary Health Check 2025.
Tipping points shown in Figure 2 have global physical, economic, and social impacts outside the scope of this website. For more detailed information see Carbon Brief’s website and this 2023 comprehensive paper (if this is inaccessible, download the pre-published PDF: ‘Mechanisms and impacts of climate tipping elements‘).
We may be able to prevent some tipping points if we can reverse rising temperatures by drawing down excessive carbon from the atmosphere. The fastest and most cost-effective way to achieve this is by restoring natural ecosystems, which will bring the collateral benefits of healthy ecosystem services as well as a livable climate.
One of the characteristics of tipping points is that once a system has been tipped into a new state, it can’t be returned to its original state simply by undoing the even that caused it to tip. For example, there is no practical way to reverse ocean acidification.
Key tipping points recognised by the IPCC but not factored into projections, already are being breached (Video 2), including ocean acidification.
Losing biodiversity coupled with current warming has already ‘tipped’ heavily forested regions from being carbon sinks into carbon sources. The south-east Amazonian rainforest, which now appears to have reached a point where plants return more CO2 into the atmosphere than they absorb (Fig. 3 & Video 3).Observations from across the Amazon suggest that CO2-driven accelerations of tree growth may have contributed to increasing tree mortality rates (trees grow faster but also die earlier), which could eventually neutralize the forest carbon sink in the coming decades. – Flores et al, 2024
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Video 3: The Amazon rainforest may have passed the tipping point that will flip it into a savannah: New Scientist
The same has occurred in African broadleaf forests and the South American monsoon is at risk of collapsing. If temperatures continue to rise over the next few years, it may not be possible for forests to recover because they will have tipped into a new state, one that does not support their future existence. For example, in 2023 widespread wildfires in Canada were so extreme that new forests are now unlikely to regrow.
The only reason why the IPCC provides the world with the remaining carbon budget of roughly 4 – 500 gigatonnes, is that the models assume that the carbon sink capacity of intact nature will continue. So not only are we assuming that biological systems will not cross tipping points, we’re also assuming that the stocks of carbon in forests in soils, in wetlands and permafrost, remain reasonably intact over the next 50 years. That is quite an optimistic assumption because it means we need to invest in conserving the remaining intact ecosystems. – Prof. Johan Rockström, COP 26 (Video 2).
2024: Researchers found that the Arctic ocean was no longer absorbing as much CO2 because of melting permafrost:We find that coastal erosion reduces the Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake from the atmosphere in all simulations: by 4.6–13.2 TgC yr−1 by 2100, which is ~7–14% of the Inner Arctic Ocean uptake. We show that coastal permafrost erosion exerts a positive biogeochemical feedback on climate, increasing atmospheric CO2 by 1–2 TgC yr−1 per °C of increase in global surface air temperature. – Neilsen et al 2024
2025: The land overall had stopped absorbing almost a third of the CO2 that it had been doing in the previous decade:In 2024, the global annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 (CGR) surged to a record of 3.73 ppm year—the highest since 1959—exceeding the 1.5°C climate threshold for the first time… The underlying mechanism for the reduction was caused by hotter and drier conditions leading to a larger increase in respiration than photosynthesis. Our findings underscore the urgent need to investigate the mechanisms behind the declining carbon sink amid persistent global greening. These results challenge previous assumptions about the long-term stability of the terrestrial carbon sink. – Dang et al April 2026
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Biodiversity loss Aotearoa:
Threats are from introduced pest plants and animals that thrive in a changing climate, ongoing agricultural expansion, pollutants entering waterways, demands for reliable water for irrigation, bulldozing marine ecosystems through bottom trawling, and an Emissions Trading Scheme that financially incentivises monoculture radiata pine plantations over the protection and restoration of biodiverse native ecosystems. Once tipping points for some native ecosystems and species are reached, the ecosystem services they provided (including flood mitigation, coastal defenses against rising sea levels, and long term carbon sequestration) are, along with many endangered species, gone forever.
Since 2012…over a hundred thousand hectares of true land-use change [has been] going on around wetlands, scrub being cleared, and dairy land-use intensification. – Landcare Research, 2020
Even the most egregious offences—including a dam built on a wetland, clearance of a nationally endangered form of kānuka, and aerial poisoning of swathes of regenerating native bush—often prompted little more than a warning from authorities. – Charlie Mitchell, Stuff, 2020
The melting cryosphere:
The Arctic is melting 4 times faster than the rest of the planet, and up to 7 times faster in the Berring Sea. Melting glaciers, Greenland, and Antarctica, and the rapid decline of sea ice formation in Antarctica and the Arctic is also well underway. This is accelerating sea level rise, changes in ocean currents, more extreme weather events, loss of critical ecosystem services (biodiversity), social and economic impacts. Millennia-old carbon storage systems once regarded as stable—permafrost and clathrates—are disgorging vast quantities of greenhouse gases, which means the remaining IPCC carbon budget is already over-drawn.Thwaites Glacier is close to collapsing (Video 4). Modelling indicates that the loss of the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS) is now unavoidable, even if emissions are stabilised.-
Video 5: Dr Tim Naish from Wellington University explains what Antarctic climate scientists are finding out and why they are so concerned. Not only will sea levels rise faster this century, but if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is destabilized, the process could be continuous and irreversible for centuries.
Having two caps of a permanent ice in the Arctic and Antarctica is the very precondition for the planet to stay in a state that has enabled us to develop civilizations as we know it. Whether it’s a small glacier or whether we’re talking about Greenland, they all add together to this fantastic capacity of cooling the planet.
Icecaps and glaciers are reflecting back 90 to 95% of incoming heat from the sun. When these ice sheets start melting, you can come to a point where the ice sheets tip over from being self-cooling to becoming self-warming and that is the most dramatic tipping point in their system..in the current climate, Greenland is already beyond its threshold where it’s now losing 10,000 cubic metres of ice per second. That loss rate will only continue as the climate heats up.
So is Greenland lost? Evidently, it is.
The drama here is that one characteristic of tipping points is that once you press the on button you cannot stop it. It takes over. It’s too late. It’s not like you could say, ‘Oops now I realise I didn’t want to melt the Greenland ice sheet. Let’s back off.’ Then it’s too late. The important point to make here is that everything in the Earth system is connected. When one part of the climate system crosses its tipping point, then that might make it more likely for other parts of the system to also cross their critical thresholds. So you can think of this in terms of dominoes. If you tip one of them over, then this might lead to cascading effect. – Prof. Jason Box in Breaking Boundaries: The Science of our Planet.
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Video 6: At COP26 over 100 countries including Aotearoa signed a global pledge to cut methane emissions 30% below 2020 levels by 2030 in recognition of the serious threat we face today. “Many scientists are convinced there is a real threat of a methane bomb or methane outbreak of very large magnitude sufficient to perhaps cause an immediate warming of at least one degree.” In 2024 the National led NZ Government revoked this pledge by refusing to bring the agricultural sector, the largest emitter of methane, into the Emissions Trading Scheme.
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Current:
The AMOC is literally a conveyor belt for exchanging heat and nutrients across four of the five world’s major oceans. The current, which moves nearly 20 million cubic metres of water per second, is driven in part by the formation of Arctic sea ice each year. When ocean water freezes, it leaves salt behind, making the surrounding water denser and heavier, so it sinks. The scale of sea ice formation was so large that until recently, the sinking salty water is one of the the world’s largest waterfalls (the largest is around Antarctica). Rescent research indicates the AMOC will shut down this century, with global implications. Amongst other impacts, it would send Europe into a mini ice-age, cause havoc to Monsoon rains across Asia and Africa, and accelerate warming in the Southern Hemisphere including Aotearoa.
A full AMOC collapse would be a massive, planetary-scale disaster. We really want to prevent this from happening. In other words: we are talking about risk analysis and disaster prevention. This is not about being 100% or even just 50% sure that the AMOC will pass its tipping point this century; the issue is that we’d like to be 100% sure that it won’t. That the IPCC only has “medium confidence” that it will not happen this century is anything but reassuring, and the studies discussed here, which came after the 2021 IPCC report, point to a much larger risk than previously thought. – Rhamstorf, April 2025
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Video 7: Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the Oceans, at the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik October 2024.
More information
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Stratocumulus clouds found over 20% of Earth reflect 30–60% of the solar radiation back into space before it reaches Earth. So they are a vital climate-controlling mechanism, acting as a natural sunshade. But modelling the way these clouds operate as greenhouse gasses (and hence warming) in the atmosphere increases, shows that a tipping point is reached once CO2 reaches 1200ppm: stratocumulus clouds no longer form; we lose our natural sunshade, which could lead to a rise of up to 8°C.
One of the characteristics of tipping points is that when a complex system has been tipped into a new state, it can’t be returned to its original state simply by undoing or reversing the tipping event. In this case, modelling shows that the stratocumulus clouds don’t begin to reform until CO2 concentrations drop below 300ppm.
See also:- NASA explanation of the research paper: Clouds, Arctic Crocodiles and a New Climate Model.
- 2019: Schneider et al: Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming. Nature Geoscience 12 pp163-167
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- 2026: Dang et al; Respiration-Induced Weakening of Land Sink Contributed to the Largest CO2 Increase Global Change Biology 32 |4: 01 April
- 2026; Steinert et al; Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks, Environmental Research Letters 21 | 12
- 2026: Forster et al; Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence Earth Systen Science Data 11 June 2026 (open access)
- 2026: Ripple et al; The risk of a hothouse Earth trajectory, One Earth 9|2 (open access)
- 2026: 2nd National Climate Change Risk Assessment, Climate Change Commission Aotearoa New Zealand
- 2026: Chen et al; Climate feedback of forest fires amplified by atmospheric chemistry, Nature Geoscience 19 pp402-05 (open access)
- 2026: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: Global warming must peak below 2°C to limit tipping point risks
- 2025: Bossy et al; Spaces of anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with climate boundaries, Nature Climate Change 15 pp1307-1314
- 2025: Rodriguez-Veiga et al; Loss of tropical moist broadleaf forest has turned Africa’s forests from a carbon sink into a source Nature Scientific Reports 15 | 41744 (Open access).
- 2025: Planetary Health Check 2025 A Scientific Assessment of the state of the Planet (PDF)
- 2025: Boers et al; Destabilization of Earth system tipping elements Nature Geoscience 18 pp949-960
- 2025: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: How the world can develop without ruining itself
- 2025: Stokes et al; Warming of +1.5°C is too high for polar ice sheets Nature Communications Earth & Environment (Open access)
- 2025: Findlay et al; Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology 09 June (Open access)
- 2025: Wunderling & Körkel; Guest post: Exploring the risks of ‘cascading’ tipping points in a warming world, Carbon Brief 15 April (Plain English open access)
- 2025: Stroeve et al; Disappearing landscapes: The Arctic at +2.7°C global warming, Science 6 February
- Plain English: SciTech daily
- 2025: Ryan-Keogh et al; Global decline in net primary production [oceanic] underestimated by climate models, Nature Communications Earth & Environment 6 | 75 (Open access)
- Plain English article (Open access)
- 2025: van Vueeren et al; Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries, Nature article (Open access; note, this was written in 2023 and published 2025).
- 2024: Rockström et al; Planetary Boundaries guide humanity’s future on Earth, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 5 pp773–788 (Open access)
- 2024:Wunderling et al; Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review Earth System Dynamics 15 | 1 pp 41-74 (Open access)
- 2024: Caesar et al; Planetary Health Check A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet, First Edition 2024, (PDF) Planetary Boundaries Science
- 2024: State of the Climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth, BioScience | Oxford Academic (PDF)
- 2024: Neilsen et al; Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion, Nature Climate Change 14 pp968-975 27 August (Open access)
- 2024: CSIRO Workshop Report; Understanding the risks to Australia from global climate tipping points, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- 2024: Möller et al; Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks, Nature Communications 15 | 6192 (Open access)
- Plain English article: Every 0.1C’ of overshoot above 1.5C increases risk of crossing tipping points Climate Brief
- 2024: Huang et al; Size, distribution, and vulnerability of the global soil inorganic carbon, Science 384|6692 pp233-239
- Plain English article here (Popular Mechanics)
- 2024: Bradley & Hewitt; Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Nature Geoscience 25 June (Open access)
- 2024: Ramage et al; The Net GHG Balance and Budget of the Permafrost Region (2000–2020) From Ecosystem Flux Upscaling, AGU Global Biogeochemical Cycles (Open access)
- 2024: Flores et al; Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626 pp555-564 (Open access)
- 2024: van Westen et al., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course Science Advances 10, eadk1189 (Open access)
- 2023: Lenton + more than 200 researchers in 90 countries; Global Tipping Points report, University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute
- 2023: See the UN website ‘Interconnected risks‘ for a more comprehensive breakdown.
- 2023: Rockström et al; Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, pp102–111 (Open access)
- 2023: Naughton et al; Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century. Nature Climate Change (Open access)
- Plain English article here (this website under ‘News’)
- 2023: Grossman; Trouble in the Amazon, Nature 620, 24 August (Open access)
- 2023: Nisbet et al; Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane’s Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations (tipping point) Global Biogeochemical Cycles AGU (Open access)
- 2023: Batchelor et al; Rapid, buoyancy-driven ice-sheet retreat of hundreds of metres per day, Nature article April 2023
- Guardian article explanation in plain English: Ice sheets can collapse at 600 metres a day, far faster than feared, study finds (open access)
- 2023: Wang et al; Mechanisms and impacts of climate tipping elements, Reviews of Geophysics Vol 61 | 1
- 2022: Wunderling et el, Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model, Nature Climate Change 13
- 2022: State of the Cryosphere
- 2022: McKay et al; Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377 |6611
- 2022: Lewis; Discovering a potential ‘tipping point’ for Congo’s tropical peatland, Carbon Brief
- 2022: Viglione, ‘Imminent’ tipping point threatening Europe’s permafrost peatlands, Carbon Brief
- 2022: Fewster et al, Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia, Nature Climate Change 576 (an open access PDF may be available here)
- 2021: Wild et al; Weakening of the pinning point buttressing Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica; Preprint, The Crysphere / European Geosciences Union. (Youtube video presentation)
- 2021: Jacobs et al; The Arctic Is Now Warming Four Times As Fast As the Rest of the Globe, AGU Fall Meeting 13-17 December
- 2021: Denning; Southeast Amazonia is no longer a carbon sink, Nature 595, pp354-355
- 2021: Philip et al; Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021. World Weather Attribution
- McSweeny; Pacific north-west heatwave shows climate is heading into ‘uncharted territory’ Carbon Brief analysis and interviews with the above researchers.
- 2021: Duffy et al; How close are we to the temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere? Science Advances: 7 | 3, eaay1052
- 2021: Ritchie et al; Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate, Nature 529 pp517–523
- 2021: IPBES-IPCC- Biodiversity and Climate Change Workshop
- 2020 Carbon Brief Explainer: Nine ‘tipping points’ that could be triggered by climate change
- 2020: An Indigenous Māori View of Doughnut Economics
- 2020: Turetsky et al; Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw, Nature Geoscience 13, pp138–143
- 2020: Keuper et al; Carbon loss from northern circumpolar permafrost soils amplified by rhizosphere priming Nature Geoscience 13, pp560-565
- 2020: Thomas et al; Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial, Quaternary Science Reviews 233 | 106222
- 2019: Lade et al; Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions, Nature Sustainability 3, pp119–128
- 2019 NIWA: New Zealand Fluvial and Pluvial Flood Exposure; prepared for Deep South Challenge
- 2019 NIWA: Coastal Flooding Exposure Under Future Sea-level Rise for New Zealand; prepared for Deep South Challenge
- 2019: Lenton et al; Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against, Nature article (open access)
- 2019 IPCC: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
- 2018 IPCC: Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C approved by governments
- 2018: Carbon Brief Analysis; Why the IPCC 1.5C report expanded the carbon budget
- 2017: Jones; How the World Passed a Carbon Threshold and Why It Matters, Yale Environment 360 – Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
- 2017: Huntingford et al; Implications of improved representations of plant respiration in a changing climate, Nature Communications 8/1602
- 2015: United Nations Climate Change: The Paris Agreement
- 2015 Carbon Brief interactive: The Paris Agreement
- 2012: Raworth; A safe and just space for humanity: can we live within the donut? Oxfam Discussion Papers
- 2010: Ditlevsen: Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking, Geophysical Research Letters 37 | 19
- 2009: Schneider; Science as a Contact Sport, National Geographic Books NY
- 2008: Lenton et al; Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, PNAS 105 | 6 pp1786-1793 (Open access)

