Circumpolar surface temperatures image: Earth live (click for live updates)
Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) Thermohaline Current
The strongest ocean current on Earth, the ACC encircles Antarctica and extends from the surface to the bottom of the ocean. It carries an estimated 165 million to 182 million cubic metres of water every second (a unit called a ‘Sverdrup’) from west to east, more than 100 times the flow of all the rivers on Earth, or the equivalent of pushing the entire South Island of New Zealand one metre every second. It helps to act as a planetary thermostat, keeping Antarctica cool (Fig. 3).
The Southern Ocean is the formation site for much of the dense water that fills the deep ocean, sequesters the majority of anthropogenic heat and carbon, and controls the flux of heat to Antarctica. – Bennetts et al, 2024
Like the Arctic Ocean, the Southern Ocean (where the current flows) has become warmer (we are now experiencing marine heat waves). The warmest water is deep and it’s undercutting the marine ice sheets and ice shelves around Antarctica that hold back ~30 million cubic kilometres of ice.
If the Antarctic overturning slows down, nutrient-rich seawater will build up on the seafloor, five kilometres below the surface. These nutrients will be lost to marine ecosystems at or near the surface, damaging fisheries.
Changes in the overturning circulation could also mean more heat gets to the ice, particularly around West Antarctica, the area with the greatest rate of ice mass loss over the past few decades. This would accelerate global sea-level rise.
An overturning slowdown would also reduce the ocean’s ability to take up carbon dioxide, leaving more greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. And more greenhouse gases means more warming, making matters worse.
Put simply, a slowing or collapse of the overturning circulation would change our climate and marine environment in profound and potentially irreversible ways.
The signs of melting around the edges of Antarctica are very clear, with increasingly large volumes of freshwater flowing into the ocean and making nearby waters less salty and therefore less dense. And that’s all that’s needed to slow the overturning circulation. Denser water sinks, lighter water does not….
…We ran three different experiments, one where conditions remained unchanged from the 1990s; a second forced by projected changes in temperature and wind; and a third run also including projected changes in meltwater from Antarctica and Greenland.
In this way we could separate the effects of changes in winds and warming, from changes due to ice melt.
The findings were striking. The model projects the overturning circulation around Antarctica will slow by more than 40% over the next three decades, driven almost entirely by pulses of meltwater. – England et al
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Thermohaline Current
The transfer of heat from ocean to atmosphere is at the heart of one of the most important components of Earth’s climate — a system of currents that snakes across the entire length of the Atlantic Ocean and transports warm water from the tropics to high northern latitudes. Known by the unwieldy name of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this network of currents affects weather conditions for billions of people around the world. It’s the reason that north-western Europe is relatively mild in the winter and much warmer than Labrador in Canada, which is at a similar latitude. – Kalvelage, June 2025
A full AMOC collapse would be a massive, planetary-scale disaster. We really want to prevent this from happening. In other words: we are talking about risk analysis and disaster prevention. This is not about being 100% or even just 50% sure that the AMOC will pass its tipping point this century; the issue is that we’d like to be 100% sure that it won’t. That the IPCC only has “medium confidence” that it will not happen this century is anything but reassuring, and the studies discussed here, which came after the 2021 IPCC report, point to a much larger risk than previously thought. – Rhamstorf, April 2025
The AMOC is literally a conveyor belt for exchanging heat and nutrients across four of the five world’s major oceans. The process begins in the Labrador Sea. A major part of this current includes the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe warmer than the east coast of the United States. Video 3 explains how it works and why it’s so important. Video 4 is a 3D animation of the flow and eddies as the current moves around the Atlantic. Recent (2024) research reveals the impacts on Aotearoa (News; this website).
The current, which moves nearly 20 million cubic metres of water per second, is driven in part by the formation of Arctic sea ice each year. When ocean water freezes, it leaves salt behind, making the surrounding water denser and heavier, so it sinks. The scale of sea ice formation was so large that until recently, the sinking salty water is one of the the world’s largest waterfalls (the largest is around Antarctica, discussed above).
Together, this is disgorging ever-increasing amounts of freshwater into the ocean. This means that less salt and more freshwater is being added to the Arctic ocean. The result? The mechanism that drives AMOC is disappearing. The current is now weaker than at any time in the past thousand years.
The last time the current shut down was at the end of the last glacial maximum (LGM) leading to abrupt cooling across much of Europe (‘Younger Dryas’) with an unstable climate and wild weather globally for several thousand years. The climate is now warming far faster than at the end of the LGM. In 2019 there was concern amongst key scientists that the current may have already reached tipping point and is shutting down. Research in 2023 (Video 5) indicates it will slow down this century to the point where it will have a powerful influence on global weather systems. By 2025, global insurance companies began to take this very seriously.
For updated monitoring and research, see the RAPID project.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and equatorial currents
“ENSO is a cycle of warm El Niño and cool La Niña episodes that happen every few years in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is the most dramatic year-to-year variation of the Earth’s climate system, affecting agriculture, public health, freshwater availability, power generation, and economic activity “ – McFadden et al (eds), 2020
ENSO is probably best known for its episodic impact on seasonal weather rather than as oceanic currents. This highlights the interlinked relationship between the ocean and weather, especially for small island nations like New Zealand (Video 7).
While 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record*, there is one very big difference. Warming in 2016 was boosted by one of the largest El Niño in the last century, whereas La Niña helped cool 2020. El Niño events are projected to increase in frequency and last longer, although weakening may occur beyond 2100.
The Pacific basin covers one third of the planet, so changes in this area also have profound effects on east Asia and the western areas of the Americas. That leads to a domino effect around the planet.
Why and how El Niño and its reverse current, La Niña flip back and forth is still unclear. Recent research suggests that the increasing loss of sea-ice around Antarctica is leading to more warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which is where ENSO patterns form. The long term trend is for “more persistent ENSO damages“.
*2023-2024 set the highest global ocean temperatures on record, which was helped by El Niño. But despite El Niño ending 21 April, 2024, temperatures continued to increase and are once again rising even while being in a weak La Niña (Fig. 5). The long term trend is for more persistent ENSO damages.
Thermo means temperature and haline means salt. Cold water is denser than warm water, so it sinks. Adding salt makes it even more dense, so it sinks faster. 
