Effects
- Planetary Boundaries & Tipping Points
- Extreme weather & event attribution
- ENSO: El Niño & La Niña
- Feedback effects of warming
- Wildfires increasing
- Antarctica melting
- Antarctic sea ice disappearing
- Arctic sea ice disappearing
- Greenland melting
- Ocean currents changing
- Oceans warming
- Ocean acidification
- Melting permafrost & burning ice
- New Zealand’s disappearing glaciers
- Black carbon & ash on snow
- Seasons changing
- How we know about past climates: proxy data
Home > Climate wiki > Effects > Feedback effects
Summary
- Feedback effects occur when a change triggers an effect that reinforces the initial change, leading to dangerous tipping points.
- A feedback that increases an initial warming is a ‘positive feedback.’
- A feedback that reduces an initial warming is a ‘negative feedback’.
- Once certain tipping points are reached, the feedback effect becomes self-sustaining. That is, it can’t be reversed.
- Multiple feedback effects are now underway. For example, a positive feedback in global warming is the increase in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, leading to further warming for reasons explained here. Similarly:
Wildfires releases reactive gases that reduce the atmosphere’s oxidation capacity, thereby increasing methane concentrations and amplifying warming. – Chen et al 2026
- Because Earth’s systems are linked, a positive feedback from one, such as declining sea ice, leads to a cascading series of positive feedbacks. The following section describes how this leads to a reduced albedo effect, keeping more heat in the atmosphere, while an increasing number and intensity of raging wildfires compounds this leading to other positive feedbacks across the planet (Fig. 4).
Effects
- Planetary Boundaries & Tipping Points
- Extreme weather & event attribution
- ENSO: El Niño & La Niña
- Feedback effects of warming
- Wildfires increasing
- Antarctica melting
- Antarctic sea ice disappearing
- Arctic sea ice disappearing
- Greenland melting
- Ocean currents changing
- Oceans warming
- Ocean acidification
- Melting permafrost & burning ice
- New Zealand’s disappearing glaciers
- Black carbon & ash on snow
- Seasons changing
- How we know about past climates: proxy data
Home > Climate wiki > Effects > Feedback effects
Summary
- Feedback effects occur when a change triggers an effect that reinforces the initial change, leading to dangerous tipping points.
- A feedback that increases an initial warming is a ‘positive feedback.’
- A feedback that reduces an initial warming is a ‘negative feedback’.
- Once certain tipping points are reached, the feedback effect becomes self-sustaining. That is, it can’t be reversed.
- Multiple feedback effects are now underway. For example, a positive feedback in global warming is the increase in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere, leading to further warming for reasons explained here. Similarly:
Wildfires releases reactive gases that reduce the atmosphere’s oxidation capacity, thereby increasing methane concentrations and amplifying warming. – Chen et al 2026
- Because Earth’s systems are linked, a positive feedback from one, such as declining sea ice, leads to a cascading series of positive feedbacks. The following section describes how this leads to a reduced albedo effect, keeping more heat in the atmosphere, while an increasing number and intensity of raging wildfires compounds this leading to other positive feedbacks across the planet (Fig. 4).
Examples of positive feedback effects
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Clean ice and snow have a very high albedo, that is, they reflect up to 90% of solar radiation back into space. Water is much darker, so it has a very low albedo, reflecting only about 6% of the incoming solar radiation and absorbing the other 94%, warming it much faster than then snow and ice (Fig. 1). Warming over the past 40+ years has led to a very large decrease in the amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic (Video 1).
Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo – Science, 05 Dec. 2024
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Fig. 1: The Albedo Effect over snow and ice versus water. Image: NASA
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Video 1: The reflectivity of snow and ice at the poles is being threatened. As the polar snow and ice melt, reducing the planet’s ability to reflect sunlight and setting off a dangerous warming loop: as more ice melts, the reflectivity decreases, the Arctic warms, and more ice melts. The volume of ice in the Arctic has shrunk 75% in the past 40 years
It’s not just the total area of cover that’s decline, it’s also the thickness of the ice, so the total volume of sea ice in the Arctic has declined more than 95% in the past 40 years. In Greenland, high altitude ice sheets are melting. That lowers the altitude of the ice, which exposes it to more heating. The dark lakes that form on the ice absorb heat due to the albedo effect, leading it even more warming.This loss means more heat-absorbing open ocean is exposed (as ice thins, it has a progressively lower albedo), leading to more warming, and so on every year in a downward spiral (Fig. 2).
Together, this triggers a cascading series of feedbacks that affects weather, changes how ocean currents work, and melts permafrost and methane clathrates, which is releasing more of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. Less albedo means more heat is retained in the atmosphere than would be expected by greenhouse gas emissions alone. This in turn leads to even more warming, which in turn melts more ice, in an ongoing positive feedback loop.
The result is that warming in the Arctic is warming 4 times faster than the global average (Fig. 3: over the Barents Sea as much as 7 times faster), which further enhance the positive (warming) feedback loop.
The Arctic is experiencing disproportionately higher temperature increases compared to the rest of the planet, triggering a series of cascading effects known as Arctic amplification. This rapid warming is not only destabilising the delicate balance of the Arctic ecosystem, but is having profound implications for global climate patterns, human populations and wildlife. The phenomenon is largely attributed to positive feedback mechanisms that exacerbate the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. – European Space Agency (ESA) infographic (click Figure 4 to be taken to their website).
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As the climate warms, evaporation dries out vegetation, making it more prone to fires, something made all too clear in the 2025 Los Angeles fires. This triggers a range of positive (warming) feedback effects, depending on where the fires are located.
One feedback is the explosive growth of forest fires globally, in areas that have rarely experienced them. Fires are becoming so large that entire ecosystems are being destroyed, unable to recover because temperatures are now too high to support their recovery.Every year, the wildfire season in the Northern Hemisphere (Alaska, Canada, and Russia) begins earlier, ends later, and is more intense.
Another feedback effect is soot or ‘black carbon‘ that falls on ice as far away as Greenland (Fig. 5) reducing the albedo and enhancing surface melting, which accelerates the disintegration of outlet glaciers that hold back the massive Greenland ice sheet, leading to increasing meltwater, accelerating sea level rise. Large volumes of freshwater melting is also changing ocean currents with multiple profound effects around the globe.
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Fig. 6: The 2020 fires in Australia sent plumes of ash landed on Franz Josef Glacier. The albedo effect increases the melt rate of snow and ice on New Zealand’s glaciers. This in turn has a feedback effect by changing river flows and water storage. (Image: Twitter/ @Rachelhatesit)
In addition to losing forests, fires in boreal regions are threatening to turn peat, which had once been a carbon sink, into a major source of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide. The peat in this region is largely permafrost, but that’s now melting at an alarming rate, both from atmospheric warming and from increasingly uncontrollable forest fires melting the upper layers of the soil.
Climate warming and drying has led to more severe and frequent forest fires, which threaten to shift the carbon balance of the boreal ecosystem from net accumulation to net loss, resulting in a positive climate feedback… This implies a shift to a domain of carbon cycling in which these forests become a net source—instead of a sink—of carbon to the atmosphere over consecutive fires. – Walker et al, 2019 Video 2
The entire Canadian Boreal contains 307 billion tonnes of carbon…as much carbon as the world emits in 36 years. – Anthony Swift, Natural Resources Defense Council, Canada
According to the latest public records, the Canadian wildfires of 2023 have razed 18.5 million hectares of land to date – nearly triple the previous record. They released [an estimated) 2.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. To put that into perspective, it’s three and a half times the annual emissions for all of Canada’s economy. – Radio NZ January 2024
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Video 2: As Arctic summers get warmer and drier, boreal forest fires are becoming more intense, meaning they burn deeper into the soil. (NASA)
More information
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- National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC)
- 2026: Chen et al; Climate feedback of forest fires amplified by atmospheric chemistry, Nature Geoscience 19 pp402-05 (open access)
- 2026: Nature Geoscience editorial 19 | 361 (open access): The far reach of fires
- 2025: Virkkala et al; Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake, Nature Climate Change 15 pp188-195
- 2025: Swain et al; Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 6, pp35-50
- 2025: Dessler; LA fire’s toxic legacy: When wildfires turn cities into smoke, The Climate Brink
- 2025: Merchant et al; Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance, Environmental Research Letters 20 (Open access)
- 2024: Winton et al; New Zealand Southern Alps blanketed by red Australian dust during 2019/2020 severe bushfire and dust event. Geophysical Research Letters (Open access)
- 2024: NOAA; Unique smoke emissions from wildland-urban interface fires, Climate Program Office
- 2024: Goessling et al; Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo, Science Research Article 387 | 6729 pp68-73
- 2024: Duspayev et al; Earth’s Sea Ice Radiative Effect from 1980 to 2023, Geophysical Research Letters 51 | 14 (Open access)
- 2024: Chao Yue et al; Forest fire size amplifies postfire land surface warming, Nature 633 pp828-834 (Open access)
- 2024: In-Won et al; Abrupt increase in Arctic-Subarctic wildfires caused by future permafrost thaw, Nature Communications 15 | 7868 (Open access)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service
- 2024: Jones et al; State of Wildfires 2023–2024; Earth System Science Data 16 | 8 pp3601-3685 (Open access)
- 2023: Fan et al, Siberian carbon sink reduced by forest disturbances, Nature Geoscience 16, pp56–62
- 2022: Jørgensen et al, Extreme escalation of heat failure rates in ectotherms with global warming, Nature 611, pp 93–98
- 2022: Damany-Pierce et al; Australian wildfires cause the largest stratospheric warming since Pinatubo and extends the lifetime of the Antarctic ozone hole, Nature Scientific Reports 12 | 12665
- 2022: Rantanen et al; The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Nature Communications Earth and environment 3 |168
- Tandon, Carbon Brief explains the research (open access)
- 2021: Jacobs et al; The Arctic Is Now Warming Four Times As Fast As the Rest of the Globe, AGU Fall Meeting 13-17 December
- 2021: Jain et al; Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature, Nature Climate Change 12 pp63-70
- 2021: van der Veld et al; Vast CO2 release from Australian fires in 2019–2020 constrained by satellite, Nature 597, pp 366–369
- 2021: Cai et al; Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming; Nature Climate Change 11, pp27-32
- Article by authors explaining their findings in Carbon Brief
- 2020: The journal Nature has compiled this open-access (free) series of peer-reviewed paper on wildfires and their impact on ecosystems, contribution to climate change, and damage to human health.
- 2020: Tonkin & Taylor; Canterbury Climate Change Risk Screening
- 2020: Dunne/ Carbon Brief; Explainer: How climate change is affecting wildfires around the world
- 2020: Witze; The Arctic is burning like never before — and that’s bad news for climate change Nature 585, pp336-337
- 2020 Australian Government: Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from bushfires in Australia’s temperate forests: focus on 2019-20, Australian Government Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources.
- 2020 Yale News: ‘Wiped out forever’ — the ecological impact of Australia’s wildfires
- NASA: 2019 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Tied for Second Lowest On Record
- 2019: Thackeray et al. An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback, Nature Climate Change 9, pp972-978
- 2019 IPCC: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
- 2019: Walker et al; Increasing wildfires threaten historic carbon sink of boreal forest soils, Nature 572, pp520-523
- 2019: Aaltonen et al: Forest fires in Canadian permafrost region: the combined effects of fire and permafrost dynamics on soil organic matter quality, Biogeochemistry 143, pp257–274 (open access)
- 2019: The Guardian New Zealand glaciers turn brown from Australian bushfires’ smoke, ash and dust
- 2018: Davy & Trompetter; Black Carbon on New Zealand, GNS Report 2017-122
- 2018: Climate and Clean Air Coalition: Annual Science Update – Black Carbon Briefing Report
- 2018 NOAA Artic Report Card: Executive summary
- 2017: Kashiwase et al; Evidence for ice-ocean albedo feedback in the Arctic Ocean shifting to a seasonal ice zone, Nature – Scientific Reports 7, 8170
- 2005: Dargavel (ed.), Australia and New Zealand Forest Histories, Australian Forest History Society Inc. Occasional Publications, 1

