Effects: Event attribution – how we know if climate change is causing extreme weather events
Image: NASA
Effects
- Extreme weather (Event Attribution)
- Dangerous tipping points
- Feedback effects of warming
- Antarctic melting
- Greenland melting
- Arctic sea ice loss
- Ocean currents changing
- Melting permafrost & burning ice
- Marine heatwaves
- New Zealand’s disappearing glaciers
- Black carbon & ash on snow
- Oceans becoming more acidic
- Seasons are changing
- How we know about past climates: proxy data
Other sections
Home > Climate wiki > Effects
Event attribution: extreme weather
Summary
- The effects of climate change are becoming more evident, through unprecedented disintegrating ice caps, oceans becoming more acidic, more frequent and intense floods and longer droughts. But how do we know if a specific extreme weather event is due to climate change? ‘Event Attribution’; how scientists work out what percentage, if any, climate change is responsible for the frequency and scale of extreme events such as the 2020 Australian wildfires, the 2021 Canterbury floods and 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave that killed an estimated billion marine animals and over 500 people, and Cyclone Gabrielle in Aotearoa in February 2023. Scroll down for the April 2023 Podcast on this topic.
- In New Zealand, ‘event attribution’ is worked out using the Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (EWERAM) by Bodeker Scientific, NIWA, MetService, Victoria University of Wellington, and the University of Canterbury (Fig. 2).
- If we understand how likely an event occurs because of climate change versus natural fluctuations such as El Niño—we can better plan to mitigate future climate costs.
- Insurance underwriters use these tools to help calculate the cost of insurance, or to decline your insurance; for example if you live in an area at risk from rising sea levels.
- Like to know more about specific events? See World Weather Attribution.
For too long, weather’s randomness has kept events such as these from being blamed squarely on climate change… Now, we can specify increased chances for specific events. This extends to forecasts: we can identify the places that are more likely to see wildfires, mudslides and fish die-offs. Such calculations dent both climate denial and a false sense of security. They take away the argument that ‘extreme weather happens anyway, so we don’t need to worry about it’. Extreme weather happens—and these metrics pinpoint what is becoming more likely, by how much and why… Such evidence is also useful for legal proceedings when citizens call corporations or governments to account for their role in climate change.“ – Richard A. Betts
Effects
- Extreme weather (Event Attribution)
- Dangerous tipping points
- Feedback effects of warming
- Antarctic melting
- Greenland melting
- Arctic sea ice loss
- Ocean currents changing
- Melting permafrost & burning ice
- Marine heatwaves
- New Zealand’s disappearing glaciers
- Black carbon & ash on snow
- Oceans becoming more acidic
- Seasons are changing
- How we know about past climates: proxy data
Other sections
Home > Climate wiki > Effects
Summary
- The effects of climate change are becoming more evident, through unprecedented disintegrating ice caps, oceans becoming more acidic, more frequent and intense floods and longer droughts. But how do we know if a specific extreme weather event is due to climate change? ‘Event Attribution’; how scientists work out what percentage, if any, climate change is responsible for the frequency and scale of extreme events such as the 2020 Australian wildfires, the 2021 Canterbury floods and 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave that killed an estimated billion marine animals and over 500 people, and Cyclone Gabrielle in Aotearoa in February 2023. Scroll down for the April 2023 Podcast on this topic.
- In New Zealand, ‘event attribution’ is worked out using the Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (EWERAM) by Bodeker Scientific, NIWA, MetService, Victoria University of Wellington, and the University of Canterbury (Fig. 2).
- If we understand how likely an event occurs because of climate change versus natural fluctuations such as El Niño—we can better plan to mitigate future climate costs.
- Insurance underwriters use these tools to help calculate the cost of insurance, or to decline your insurance; for example if you live in an area at risk from rising sea levels.
- Like to know more about specific events? See World Weather Attribution.
For too long, weather’s randomness has kept events such as these from being blamed squarely on climate change… Now, we can specify increased chances for specific events. This extends to forecasts: we can identify the places that are more likely to see wildfires, mudslides and fish die-offs. Such calculations dent both climate denial and a false sense of security. They take away the argument that ‘extreme weather happens anyway, so we don’t need to worry about it’. Extreme weather happens—and these metrics pinpoint what is becoming more likely, by how much and why… Such evidence is also useful for legal proceedings when citizens call corporations or governments to account for their role in climate change.“ – Richard A. Betts
Fear & Wonder is a new podcast from The Conversation that takes you inside the UN’s era-defining climate report via the hearts and minds of the scientists who wrote it. In this episode, the presenters are delving into one of the major shifts in the public communication of climate change – the attribution of extreme weather events to climate change.
More information
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- Bodeker Scientific: Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (New Zealand)
- NIWA
- National Science Challenges
- World Weather Attribution
- 2022: Carbon Brief Mapped – How climate change affects extreme weather around the world
- 2021: Philip et al; Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021. World Weather Attribution
- McSweeny; Pacific north-west heatwave shows climate is heading into ‘uncharted territory’ Carbon Brief analysis and interviews with the above researchers.
- 2021: Stone et al; The question of life, the universe and event attribution, Nature Climate Change 11 pp276–78
- 2021: Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective; Special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Association (open access)
- 2020: Frame et al; Climate
change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a
study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought, (NZ) Climate Change 162, pp 781-797 - 2020: Betts; Heed blame for extreme weather, Nature article 26 Jan (open access)
- 2020: Raymond et al; Understanding and managing connected extreme events, Nature Climate Change, 10, pp611–621
- NZ Ministry for the Environment: Environmental Reporting – New Zealand Extreme weather events
- Carbon Brief: Extreme weather attribution Nature Climate Change 10 pp726–731
- 2020: Bonfils et al; Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity Nature Climate Change 10 pp726–731
- 2020: Vargo et al; Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss Nature Climate Change
- 2020: Ortega; Unusual Arctic warming explained by overlooked greenhouse gases, Science
- 2020: Smith; The unexpected link between the ozone hole and arctic amplification The Conversation
-
- Bodeker Scientific: Extreme Weather Event Real-time Attribution Machine (New Zealand)
- NIWA
- National Science Challenges
- World Weather Attribution
- 2022: Carbon Brief Mapped – How climate change affects extreme weather around the world
- 2021: Philip et al; Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heatwave on the Pacific Coast of the US and Canada June 2021. World Weather Attribution
- McSweeny; Pacific north-west heatwave shows climate is heading into ‘uncharted territory’ Carbon Brief analysis and interviews with the above researchers.
- 2021: Stone et al; The question of life, the universe and event attribution, Nature Climate Change 11 pp276–78
- 2021: Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective; Special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Association (open access)
- 2020: Frame et al; Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought, (NZ) Climate Change 162, pp 781-797
- 2020: Betts; Heed blame for extreme weather, Nature article 26 Jan (open access)
- 2020: Raymond et al; Understanding and managing connected extreme events, Nature Climate Change, 10, pp611–621
- NZ Ministry for the Environment: Environmental Reporting – New Zealand Extreme weather events
- Carbon Brief: Extreme weather attribution Nature Climate Change 10 pp726–731
- 2020: Bonfils et al; Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity Nature Climate Change 10 pp726–731
- 2020: Vargo et al; Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss Nature Climate Change
- 2020: Ortega; Unusual Arctic warming explained by overlooked greenhouse gases, Science
- 2020: Smith; The unexpected link between the ozone hole and arctic amplification The Conversation