Fig. 1: Our current trajectory is SSP5-8.5 Image: IPCC 6th Assessment Report WG1 (2021)
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Adaptation
The default setting of the global clock above is the ‘2°C scenario‘. To keep the planet habitable for most (but not all) people, global average temperatures must stay below 1.5°C. Click on the ‘1.5°C scenario‘ box on the above right. This shows that globally, we must stop emitting all greenhouse gases in less than 7 years, far sooner than the Government’s goal of ‘net zero by 2050’.
The lukewarm promises made by governments in 2021 already are being broken. Emissions are increasing, not declining. The world is currently accelerating towards 4°C+ by 2100 and continued warming into the next century (Fig. 1). To compound the problem, irreversible climate tipping points not factored into the IPCC modelling used in Figure 1 already are being passed. Due to feedback effects, instead of absorbing greenhouse gases, large parts of what little remains of natural world are now releasing them into the atmosphere, adding to what we’re emitting. And the pace is accelerating.
Cyclone Gabrielle has driven home the point that climate change is not a remote problem. It’s here in Aotearoa, now.
“What is effective adaptation? To be effective, adaptation action must enable New Zealand’s communities to reduce the risks from climate change impacts today, and over the medium and long term by:
- reducing the exposure and vulnerability of our social and cultural systems, natural and built environment (including physical assets), and economy
- maintaining and improving the capacity of our social, cultural, environmental, physical and economic systems to adapt
“We identified three characteristics that need to be in place for effective adaptation to be implemented in New Zealand:
- being informed about how the climate is changing and what this means for New Zealanders
- being organised, with a common goal, a planned approach, appropriate tools, and clear roles and responsibilities
- taking dynamic action to proactively reduce exposure and vulnerability to the social, cultural, environmental and economic consequences of climate change.” – MfE Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand
