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Adaptation

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  Adaptation

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Adaptation

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This section includes multiple webinars presented in 2023 and 2024 from the National Science Challenges.
 
Lukewarm promises made by governments in 2021 have long since been broken. Emissions are increasing, not declining, with global fossil fuel subsidies surging to record $7 Trillion in 2022. The world is currently accelerating towards at 3°C+ by 2100 and further warming into the next century (Fig. 2). To compound the problem, irreversible climate tipping points not factored into the IPCC modelling used in Figure 2 already are being passed. Due to feedback effects, instead of absorbing greenhouse gases, large parts of what little remains of natural world are now releasing them into the atmosphere, adding to what we’re emitting. This means that 4°C+ is a realistic possibility.
 
The 2023 Auckland floods and Cyclone Gabrielle has driven home the point that climate change is not a remote problem. It’s here in Aotearoa, now, and yet…
 
“In the aftermath of [these events], the government developed, once more, an ad-hoc arrangement with councils that seems to incentivize more poorly planned developments and investments in high-risk areas, and a refusal to recognise that the risks are changing because of climate change.

“An external expert working group convened by the Ministry for the Environment issued a suggested framework on how to develop a coherent system of planned relocations that will reduce risk, rather than enhance it.

“Nothing has been done, however, and it seems that when another inevitable disaster will happen, we will again improvise a response that will again fail to deal with the underlying risk from climate change.” – Prof. Ilan Noy, Chair in the Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Victoria University of Wellington, 2024
 
Fig. 1: Global surface air temperature increase relative to the average for 1850–1900. Image: Copernicus
Fig. 1: Global surface air temperature increase relative to the average for 1850–1900. Image: Copernicus
Fig. 2: Our current trajectory is now closer to SSP5-8.5 Image: IPCC AR6
Fig. 2: Our current trajectory is now closer to SSP5-8.5 Image: IPCC AR6

“What is effective adaptation? To be effective, adaptation action must enable New Zealand’s communities to reduce the risks from climate change impacts today, and over the medium and long term by:

  • reducing the exposure and vulnerability of our social and cultural systems, natural and built environment (including physical assets), and economy
  • maintaining and improving the capacity of our social, cultural, environmental, physical and economic systems to adapt

“We identified three characteristics that need to be in place for effective adaptation to be implemented in New Zealand:

  1. being informed about how the climate is changing and what this means for New Zealanders
  2. being organised, with a common goal, a planned approach, appropriate tools, and clear roles and responsibilities
  3. taking dynamic action to proactively reduce exposure and vulnerability to the social, cultural, environmental and economic consequences of climate change.”  – MfE Adapting to Climate Change in New Zealand, 2018

To mitigate these rapidly compounding impacts, we need to redouble our efforts to stop emissions while simultaneously deploying adaptation strategies to accommodate wilder weather and rising sea levels that are now unavoidable and irreversible on human time scales. And we need to do so quickly. In many instances, protecting and restoring native ecosystems (nature-based solutions) helps both mitigate and adapt to climate change.

Adaptation also requires developing and implementing tools that help communities cope with inevitable and unavoidable non-economic as well as economic losses, while avoiding bad decisions that result in costly and potentially deadly maladaptation.

A Local Government New Zealand report found that process of engaging with communities at risk to help make the best—albeit unpalatable—choices are hindered by a lack of resources, vague policies, and ill-defined laws. These outdated laws were due to be replaced by the proposed Managed Retreat and Climate Change Act but the new coalition Government scrapped climate policies in December 2023.  As things stand, developers are pitted against councils faced with potential legal action for declining development. Perversely, these councils will be subject to legal action from affected owners for permitting that development. And they’ll have to fight this litigation using money we paid either via rates or indirectly from rent.

Any new legislation could take years to decades to come into full effect, subject to any change of government scrapping whatever the previous government legislates.

Video 1 : Reducing future extreme weather impact Aotearoa New Zealand. Researchers from the Extreme Weather Research Platform (EWRP) present their key findings. Featuring presenters from a range of EWRP projects, this webinar provides a detailed overview of key outcomes and data outputs from MBIE funding across the EWRP. Topics include landslide mapping, the Emergency Event Data Catalogue, strategies for supporting critical infrastructure recovery, ecological impacts, the effects of extreme weather on rangatahi and whānau wellbeing, LiDAR, remote sensing, flood mapping, and risk modelling.

24 June 2024: See the webpage for all research projects

Video 2: Smart Resilient Communities. Technology is increasingly transforming the cities and communities that we live in, and the way we live in them. Researchers from EWRP provided a detailed overview of key outcomes and data outputs across the EWRP. Topics included landslide mapping, the Emergency Event Data Catalogue, strategies for supporting critical infrastructure recovery, ecological impacts, the effects of extreme weather on rangatahi and whānau wellbeing, LiDAR, remote sensing, flood mapping, and risk modelling, and present their key findings.

08 April 2024: See the webpage and download slides.

Video 3: Impact-based weather warnings are a new type of warning system that communicates what the weather will DO (e.g. disrupt traffic, take out power) along with what the weather will BE (e.g. wind speed, rainfall intensity). They can add meaning to the warnings and enable the public to make appropriate decisions to protect themselves. Where is the data needed to produce impact-based warnings? What are the challenges and benefits, and how effective are they at prompting the public to take action? These topics are covered by Dr Richard Turner of NIWA and social scientists Dr Sally Potter and Dr Sara Harrison of GNS Science.

21 April 2024: See the webpage and download slides.

Video 4: Food systems security and resilience Events like the Kaikōura earthquake, Covid-19 and Cyclone Gabrielle exposed our food system’s vulnerability to shocks, its dependence on our whenua, and how disasters can exacerbate existing inequalities among people. By disrupting food production and distribution systems, such events result in food shortages that can affect not only communities immediately impacted by disasters, but potentially the entire country.

Directors of seven National Science Challenges, including Resilience to Nature’s Challenges, have called for a National Food Strategy to guide food-related policy decisions and actions, including those around food system vulnerabilities and inequities. 

Our webinar ‘He pito mata’ brings together experts on food security, food resilience and indigenous food sovereignty, to explore how we might build a food system that can ensure our nation has enough food to feed our people, both pre- and post-disasters.

No reira, ē ngā mana, ē ngā reo, ē ngā mātāwaka, areare taringa mai ki tēnei wānanga ipurangi whakahirahira ō tatou, He pito mata.

20 February 2024: See the webpage and download slides.

Video 5: Adaptation to natural hazards is essential for our communities and infrastructure facing the recurring effects of disruptive natural hazards. When it comes to mitigating these impacts, decision-makers have to navigate considerable institutional, professional, and political risks. In May 2024, the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges symposium Te Tai Whanake – Growing a stronger, more resilient Aotearoa started to address questions like:

 – What does adaptation look like in different contexts?
– How sure are we? 
– How much will it cost, and who pays? 
– What should we prioritise? 
– What arrangements or capability would improve a whole-of-nation approach to assessing and managing our significant natural hazard risks? 
– And how can the latest research findings and tools support communities and government through the complexity of adaptation decisions?
Some of our symposium panelists made themselves available for a Q&A webinar, so we could continue these important discussions and answer live questions from attendees. 

Video 6:  Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate  – Adaptation: from infrastructure to insurance

Conrad presents on Infrastructure disruption from coastal flooding

With rising sea levels New Zealand’s infrastructure becomes more exposed to coastal flooding. This research focuses not only on where, but also how future coastal flooding may disrupt national infrastructure. Coastal flooding may cause short-term disruption, such as temporary flooding of a railway line, or more significant damage that requires repairs, such as washed out bridges. Understanding these relationships between flood depths and resulting damage to infrastructure are a vital component of the modelling drawing on evidence from historic floods both local and globally. The team will produce an improved national dataset of extreme coastal flooding.

 

Andrew presents on Adapting to compound flood hazards

This project is addressing compounding flood hazards on water infrastructure due to climate change. The research is investigating how flood hazards from rivers, sea-level rise and groundwater will combine either as extreme events (shocks), or as slowly emerging and increasingly persistent impacts. Working with researchers from TU Delft in the Netherlands, the team is testing Robust Decision Making (RDM) tools within a Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) process.

Kenny presents on Risk-based flood insurance pricing

The property insurance market faces multiple stressors from increasing hazards, including floods, sea level rise and landslips. Concerns are emerging about the long-term viability of coastal insurance. It’s increasingly understood that insurers will turn to risk-based pricing to maintain coverage. On the one hand, this does encourage adaptation and better aligns payment with those who bear the risk. On the one hand, this does encourage adaptation and better aligns payment with those who bear the risk. On the other hand, risk-based pricing raises concerns about equity, affordability and under-insurance, which are likely to get worse in flood-prone areas.

Video 7:  ‘He kai kei aku ringa – Disaster preparedness’.

This whakatauki translates to ‘there is food at the end of my hands’ and speaks to resilience, empowerment, and hope. The whakatauki refers to one’s ability to have, and use the necessary skills, knowledge, and resources to be resilient and thrive.

The purpose of this webinar is to present whānau and communities with tangible and practical knowledge so they can determine for themselves how best to prepare, respond and recover.

Captain Ernesto Ojeda of the indigenous Tarahumara and Yaqui Nations has over 50 years experience in disaster preparedness and response.

Video 8:  Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate  – Impacts of a changing climate on short term and long term energy planning

Jen Purdie presents the findings from her Deep South Challenge research into climate change impacts on NZ electricity.

More information