Causes: the sun
Solar flare image: NASA
Causes
- A brief history of climate change: who knew what, when
- What causes climate change?
- Would the climate be warming without humans?
- Is it just a cycle? (Earth’s wobbly orbit)
- Sunspots & solar activity
- Land use: agriculture & cities
- Volcanoes
- Ocean currents
- Black carbon & ash
- Albedo effect
- Hydrogen
- Greenhouse gases & how they work
- – Carbon dioxide & the carbon cycle
- – Methane: biogenic (mostly cows) & ‘natural’ gas
- – Nitrous oxide (mostly agriculture)
- – Clouds & water vapour
- – Ozone
- – Man-made industrial chemicals
- – Aerosol pollution
- How to start an Ice Age!
- What’s in a name?
Home > Climate wiki > What causes climate change? > Sunspots & solar activity
Sunspots, solar activity, cosmic rays
Summary
- Solar activity is a natural climate forcing. When the Sun has fewer sunspots, it’s an indicator that it gives off very slightly less solar energy, that is, less heat.
- About every 11 years the number of sunspots reaches a high and then declines. Sometimes these ‘solar cycles’ last for longer periods. In the late 1600s, people noticed significantly fewer sunspots over a long period called the Maunder Minimum, which corresponded with slightly lower global temperatures (Fig. 2).
- A second slightly cooler period called the Dalton Minimum also corresponded with the so-called ‘Little Ice Age‘ in Europe (Fig. 2).
- Sunspot activity 1880 – 1970 increased slightly, matching a slight increase in temperature. However, sunspot activity subsequently declined while temperatures continued to rise significantly (Fig. 3). This indicates that any activity associated with the Sun in the past 50 years may have slightly helped offset global warming.
- A supernovae might have helped initiate the Quaternary Period (our current Ice Age) 2.5 million years ago.
- Miyake Events (abrupt carbon-14 spikes in the atmosphere due to solar or cosmic particle events) have no impact on climate.
Future sunspots?
- The current solar cycle—No. 25—began April 2020 (Fig. 1). See NASA for regular updates.
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Fig. 3: The above graph compares global surface temperature changes (red line) and the Sun’s energy received by the Earth (yellow line) in watts (units of energy) per square metre since 1880. The lighter/thinner lines show the yearly levels while the heavier/thicker lines show the 11-year average trends. Eleven-year averages are used to reduce the year-to-year natural noise in the data, making the underlying trends more obvious. The amount of solar energy received by the Earth has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. Image: NASA
Causes
- A brief history of climate change: who knew what, when
- What causes climate change?
- Would the climate be warming without humans?
- Is it just a cycle? (Earth’s wobbly orbit)
- Sunspots & solar activity
- Land use: agriculture & cities
- Volcanoes
- Ocean currents
- Black carbon & ash
- Albedo effect
- Hydrogen
- Greenhouse gases & how they work
- – Carbon dioxide & the carbon cycle
- – Methane: biogenic (mostly cows) & ‘natural’ gas
- – Nitrous oxide (mostly agriculture)
- – Clouds & water vapour
- – Ozone
- – Man-made industrial chemicals
- – Aerosol pollution
- How to start an Ice Age!
- What’s in a name?
Home > Climate wiki > What causes climate change? > Sunspots & solar activity
Sunspots and solar activity
Summary
- Solar activity is a natural climate forcing. When the Sun has fewer sunspots, it’s an indicator that it gives off very slightly less solar energy, that is, less heat.
- About every 11 years the number of sunspots reaches a high and then declines. Sometimes these ‘solar cycles’ last for longer periods. In the late 1600s, people noticed significantly fewer sunspots over a long period called the Maunder Minimum, which corresponded with slightly lower global temperatures (Fig. 2).
- A second slightly cooler period called the Dalton Minimum also corresponded with the so-called ‘Little Ice Age‘ in Europe (Fig. 2).
- Sunspot activity 1880 – 1970 increased slightly, matching a slight increase in temperature. However, sunspot activity subsequently declined while temperatures continued to rise significantly (Fig. 3). This indicates that any activity associated with the Sun in the past 50 years may have slightly helped offset global warming.
- A supernovae might have helped initiate the Quaternary Period (our current Ice Age) 2.5 million years ago.
- Miyake Events (abrupt carbon-14 spikes in the atmosphere due to solar or cosmic particle events) have no impact on climate.
Future sunspots?
- The current solar cycle—No. 25—began April 2020 (Fig. 1). See NASA for regular updates.
-
Fig. 3: The above graph compares global surface temperature changes (red line) and the Sun’s energy received by the Earth (yellow line) in watts (units of energy) per square metre since 1880. The lighter/thinner lines show the yearly levels while the heavier/thicker lines show the 11-year average trends. Eleven-year averages are used to reduce the year-to-year natural noise in the data, making the underlying trends more obvious. The amount of solar energy received by the Earth has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. Image: NASA
More information
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The term ‘climate forcing’ comes from ‘radiative forcing’ or RF, which is the difference between the amount of solar energy reaching Earth’s atmosphere and the amount that escapes. If more solar energy escapes than arrives, the planet cools. Conversely, if less energy escapes than gets in, the planet warms.
Click here to learn about the main forcings and how they work (links to a page on this site).
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This is generally regarded as the period 1300 – 1850AD. Several forcings appeared to have contributed, including the 1257 eruption of Samalas volcano. The AMOC (Atlantic oceanic current) also seems to have slowed due to a sudden influx of freshwater following the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ 950-1250AD. A part of this current, called the Gulf Stream, is crucial for keeping Europe warm. Slight changes have global impacts, which is why it’s a concern today, as the current is slowing down.
A very small contribution to the cooling may have been from a slight decline solar radiation. However, the Maunder Minimum didn’t begin until 1645AD (Fig. 1) three hundred years after cooling began in the Northern Hemisphere.
Actual ice ages: we’re currently living in the Quaternary Period, which itself is an Ice Age. Confused? Don’t be. This page explains the difference between ice ages (Periods) and glacials (epochs).
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- 2024: Nilsson et al: Holocene solar activity inferred from global and hemispherical cosmic-ray proxy records, Nature Geoscience 21 June 2024 (Open access)
- 2021: Clery, Exploding stars may have assaulted ancient Earth, Science, doi:10.1126/science.abl4554
- NASA: Is the sun causing global warming?
- Space Weather: Historic and daily solar and sunspot activity
- Carbon Brief: Why scientists think 100% of global warming is due to humans
- Science Direct: The Law of Conservation of Energy
- IPPC Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- 2024: Nilsson et al: Holocene solar activity inferred from global and hemispherical cosmic-ray proxy records, Nature Geoscience 21 June 2024 (Open access)
Higher levels of solar activity generally results in more intense auroras

