Solar activity is a natural climate forcing. When the Sun has fewer sunspots, it’s an indicator that it gives off very slightly less solar energy, that is, less heat.
About every 11 years the number of sunspots reaches a high and then declines. Sometimes these ‘solar cycles’ last for longer periods. In the late 1600s, people noticed significantly fewer sunspots over a long period called the Maunder Minimum, which corresponded with slightly lower global temperatures (Fig. 2).
A second slightly cooler period called the Dalton Minimum also corresponded with the so-called ‘Little Ice Age‘ in Europe (Fig. 2).
Sunspot activity 1880 – 1970 increased slightly, matching a slight increase in temperature. However, it subsequently declined while temperatures continued to rise significantly (Fig. 3). This indicates that any activity associated with the Sun in the past 50 years may have slightly helped offset global warming.
Solar activity is a natural climate forcing. When the Sun has fewer sunspots, it’s an indicator that it gives off very slightly less solar energy, that is, less heat.
About every 11 years the number of sunspots reaches a high and then declines. Sometimes these ‘solar cycles’ last for longer periods. In the late 1600s, people noticed significantly fewer sunspots over a long period called the Maunder Minimum, which corresponded with slightly lower global temperatures (Fig. 2).
A second slightly cooler period called the Dalton Minimum also corresponded with the so-called ‘Little Ice Age‘ in Europe (Fig. 2).
Sunspot activity 1880 – 1970 increased slightly, matching a slight increase in temperature. However, it subsequently declined while temperatures continued to rise significantly (Fig. 3). This indicates that any activity associated with the Sun in the past 50 years may have slightly helped offset global warming.
Fig. 2: Changes in sunspot activity over the past 400 years. Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum (Image: Wikipedia)
Fig. 3: The above graph compares global surface temperature changes (red line) and the Sun’s energy received by the Earth (yellow line) in watts (units of energy) per square metre since 1880. The lighter/thinner lines show the yearly levels while the heavier/thicker lines show the 11-year average trends. Eleven-year averages are used to reduce the year-to-year natural noise in the data, making the underlying trends more obvious. The amount of solar energy received by the Earth has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs with no net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. (Image: NASA)
The term ‘climate forcing’ comes from ‘radiative forcing’ or RF, which is the difference between the amount of solar energy reaching Earth’s atmosphere and the amount that escapes. If more solar energy escapes than arrives, the planet cools. Conversely, if less energy escapes than gets in, the planet warms.
This is generally regarded as the period 1300 – 1850AD. Several forcings appeared to have contributed, including the 1257 eruption of Samalas volcano. The AMOC (Atlantic oceanic current) also seems to have slowed due to a sudden influx of freshwater following the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ 950-1250AD. A part of this current, called the Gulf Stream, is crucial for keeping Europe warm. Slight changes have global impacts, which is why it’s a concern today, as the current is slowing down.
A very small contribution to the cooling may have been from a slight decline solar radiation. However, the Maunder Minimum didn’t begin until 1645AD (Fig. 1) three hundred years after cooling began in the Northern Hemisphere.
IPPC Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcingin: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Higher levels of solar activity generally results in more intense auroras