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Response: What is being done?

Video 1: UN Development Programme: to play with sound, scroll to the bottom of this page

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Avoiding extinction: are we doing enough?

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What is being done?

Summary

We’re heading for a climate disaster, and yet every year, governments spend hundreds of billions of public funds on fossil fuel subsidies. Imagine if we had spent hundreds of billions per year subsidising giant meteors? That’s what you’re doing right now. – Video 1 (above) Velociraptor (on behalf of the the United Nations).

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024 – Global Carbon Budget

  • November 2024: The latest COP, where countries get together and decide what to do about climate change, was an abysmal failure. It prompted a joint statement from climate scientists across the globe:

…it is today well established that 1.5°C is a limit. Go beyond it and five large tipping point systems are likely to be crossed… In addition, 1.5°C will with zero uncertainty, imply life-threatening extreme events affecting millions of people due to severely amplified droughts, floods, hurricanes, heatwaves, and fires.

The remaining global carbon budget to have a 50% chance of holding the 1.5°C limit is down to 200 billion tons of CO2. This means the budget is consumed by 2029 at current rate of emissions (approximately 40 billion tons/yr). The world has so far failed to bend the global curve of emissions, which not only means we are running out of carbon budget, we are very likely unable to hold 1.5°C without overshoot. The best IPCC scenarios (C2) that can still hold 1.5°C limit by 2100, breaches 1.5°C in 2030-2035 (i.e., in only 5-10 years time) with 30-40 years of overshoot, up to some 1.7-1.8 °C. This overshoot scenario is the best science can offer today, i.e., it requires (1) staying within the remaining carbon budget, which in turn means (2) cutting global emissions by 40-50% by 2030, to (3) reach zero by 2050.

In addition, we need to secure the carbon sinks in the ocean and in nature on land, and cross our fingers that no tipping points are crossed during overshoot (as this will likely amplify the rate of warming and create even more extreme climate impacts affecting people across the world). – Joint Statement on the New Common Quantified Goal (NCQG) of Climate Finance and Its Delivery on the 1.5°C Paris Agreement Goal

  Response

Other sections

Avoiding extinction: are we doing enough?

Home > Climate wiki > Response

 Video: UNDP: to play sound, scroll to page bottom

Summary

We’re heading for a climate disaster, and yet every year, governments spend hundreds of billions of public funds on fossil fuel subsidies. Imagine if we had spent hundreds of billions per year subsidising giant meteors? That’s what you’re doing right now. – Video 1 (above) Velociraptor (on behalf of the the United Nations).

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024 – Global Carbon Budget

  • November 2024: The latest COP, where countries get together and decide what to do about climate change, was an abysmal failure. It prompted a joint statement from climate scientists across the globe:

…it is today well established that 1.5°C is a limit. Go beyond it and five large tipping point systems are likely to be crossed… In addition, 1.5°C will with zero uncertainty, imply life-threatening extreme events affecting millions of people due to severely amplified droughts, floods, hurricanes, heatwaves, and fires.

The remaining global carbon budget to have a 50% chance of holding the 1.5°C limit is down to 200 billion tons of CO2. This means the budget is consumed by 2029 at current rate of emissions (approximately 40 billion tons/yr). The world has so far failed to bend the global curve of emissions, which not only means we are running out of carbon budget, we are very likely unable to hold 1.5°C without overshoot. The best IPCC scenarios (C2) that can still hold 1.5°C limit by 2100, breaches 1.5°C in 2030-2035 (i.e., in only 5-10 years time) with 30-40 years of overshoot, up to some 1.7-1.8 °C. This overshoot scenario is the best science can offer today, i.e., it requires (1) staying within the remaining carbon budget, which in turn means (2) cutting global emissions by 40-50% by 2030, to (3) reach zero by 2050.

In addition, we need to secure the carbon sinks in the ocean and in nature on land, and cross our fingers that no tipping points are crossed during overshoot (as this will likely amplify the rate of warming and create even more extreme climate impacts affecting people across the world). – Joint Statement on the New Common Quantified Goal (NCQG) of Climate Finance and Its Delivery on the 1.5°C Paris Agreement Goal

What can be done?

Before scrolling down, listen to Dr. Hannah Ritchie (Our World in Data; University of Oxford) explain in 12 minutes how we can solve the climate crisis. We have the means to do it. But we must overcome the powerful resistance by those who benefit from the current fossil fuel system.
Fig. 1: The top 20 countries for cumulative emissions 1850-2021 weighted by population in 2021 (left), versus the top 20 countries for cumulative per-capita emissions 1850-2021 (right). The ranking excludes countries with a population in 2021 of less than 1 million people. (Image: Carbon Brief)
Fig. 1: The top 20 countries for cumulative emissions 1850-2021 weighted by population in 2021 (left), versus the top 20 countries for cumulative per-capita emissions 1850-2021 (right). The ranking excludes countries with a population in 2021 of less than 1 million people. (Image: Carbon Brief)
Fig. 2: New Zealand is one of the worst countries in the world in terms of meeting its commitments to keep temperatures under 1.5C. (Image: Climate Action Tracker)
Fig. 2: New Zealand is one of the worst countries in the world in terms of meeting its commitments to keep temperatures under 1.5C. (Image: Climate Action Tracker)
Video 2: The 2023 Emissions Gap Report summarises the effects of failing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to keep the planet with a safe operating temperature.
Fig. 3: New Zealand is one of the worst countries in the world in terms of meeting its commitments to keep temperatures under 1.5C. (Image: Climate Action Tracker)
Fig. 3: New Zealand is one of the worst countries in the world in terms of meeting its commitments to keep temperatures under 1.5C. (Image: Climate Action Tracker)
Fig. 4: Agricultural emissions increased to 50% of our total emissions in 2020.
Fig. 4: Agricultural emissions increased to 50% of our total emissions in 2020.

“The idea of planting trees in vast areas to remove carbon dioxide from the air and reduce the impact of climate change, for example, has attracted a lot of attention, with some claiming it’s the best “low-hanging fruit” approach to pursue, McElwee said. But large-scale tree planting could conflict directly with food security because both compete for available land. It could also diminish biodiversity, if fast-growing exotic trees replace native habitat.” –  Rutgers University, 2020

Fig. 5: Under the existing Emissions Trading Scheme, (ETS) the financial incentives to plant exotic trees are far greater than regenerating native forests. Radiata pine sequesters carbon faster in the trees, but not soils. More carbon is lost by the carbon-emitting harvesting methods, transporting felled timber (generally offshore), converting timber into wood products most of which will ultimately be burned or rot, releasing their carbon. Meanwhile, the biodiversity values and essential ecosystem services including soil carbon provided by natives are being sacrificed.
Fig. 5: Under the existing Emissions Trading Scheme, (ETS) the financial incentives to plant exotic trees are far greater than regenerating native forests. Radiata pine sequesters carbon faster in the trees, but not soils. More carbon is lost by the carbon-emitting harvesting methods, transporting felled timber (generally offshore), converting timber into wood products most of which will ultimately be burned or rot, releasing their carbon. Meanwhile, the biodiversity values and essential ecosystem services including soil carbon provided by natives are being sacrificed.
Fig. 6: To see an interactive map, click the image to the IPCC website. This screengrab shows how you can enter information for regions (eg New Zealand/ land only) and check the projected temperature changes over time, based on different models and pathways.
Fig. 6: To see an interactive map, click the image to the IPCC website. This screengrab shows how you can enter information for regions (eg New Zealand/ land only) and check the projected temperature changes over time, based on different models and pathways.
Video 3: Reducing Future Extreme Weather Impacts in Aotearoa New Zealand (July 2024)

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