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Effects: How we know if climate change is causing extreme weather

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Event attribution: extreme weather

Summary

For too long, weather’s randomness has kept events such as these from being blamed squarely on climate change… Now, we can specify increased chances for specific events. This extends to forecasts: we can identify the places that are more likely to see wildfires, mudslides and fish die-offs. Such calculations dent both climate denial and a false sense of security. They take away the argument that ‘extreme weather happens anyway, so we don’t need to worry about it’. Extreme weather happens—and these metrics pinpoint what is becoming more likely, by how much and why… Such evidence is also useful for legal proceedings when citizens call corporations or governments to account for their role in climate change.Richard A. Betts

Other sections

Home > Climate wiki > Effects

Summary

For too long, weather’s randomness has kept events such as these from being blamed squarely on climate change… Now, we can specify increased chances for specific events. This extends to forecasts: we can identify the places that are more likely to see wildfires, mudslides and fish die-offs. Such calculations dent both climate denial and a false sense of security. They take away the argument that ‘extreme weather happens anyway, so we don’t need to worry about it’. Extreme weather happens—and these metrics pinpoint what is becoming more likely, by how much and why… Such evidence is also useful for legal proceedings when citizens call corporations or governments to account for their role in climate change.Richard A. Betts

Fear & Wonder is a new podcast from The Conversation that takes you inside the UN’s era-defining climate report via the hearts and minds of the scientists who wrote it. In this episode, the presenters are delving into one of the major shifts in the public communication of climate change – the attribution of extreme weather events to climate change.

Fig. 1: Click on the image to be taken to the website
Fig. 2: Click on the image to be taken to the New Zealand EWERAM page (image: Bodeker Scientific).

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